Resume:
RPI: 44
SOS: 27
BPI: 59
Kenpom: 67
Sagarin: 69
LRMC: 73
Solid wins (RPI): @Louisville(28), Seton Hall(54), Cincinnati(68)
Bad losses (RPI): neutral court vs. Penn St.(157), @Auburn(138)
Notable tidbits: 0-5 vs. RPI top 25 teams, nine of their 12 Big East wins were against teams with 12 or more losses, 7-3 in their last six games and have held opponents to under 60 points in nine straight.
No matter what your feelings are for the plethora of metrics out there, they are here to stay and they all say the same thing about the South Florida Bulls - they are a mediocre team that is floating on the bubble.
Finishing 12-6 in the Big East seems impressive, until of course you look more closely. They played Pittsburgh, Villanova and Providence each twice, who went a combined 14-40 in the conference. Now, this is by no means the fault of South Florida, as they did not make the schedule nor is it their fault that Nova and Pitt had exceptionally poor years compared to their recent history. But the hypothetical fact of the matter is... if Nova and Pitt have normal Nova and Pitt seasons, USF probably does not go 4-0 against them. But, in the end, these victories do not count as 'good' wins anyway.
The Big East has had a down year relative to its history that South Florida to their credit was able to benefit from, but what about their non-conference slate of games. Is South Florida more accomplished outside the conference compared to say, Seton Hall? Does not look like it. USF's best non-conference win is against Cleveland St. and that's about it; while Seton Hall beat VCU, St. Joseph's and Dayton.
It is not that USF is a bad team, because they have improved as the year has gone on, especially on the defensive end. They take pride in themselves being disciplined, playing physical, and being the tougher team on the court. Their slow paced offense may not be very efficient, but it actually helps them on defense. Opponents become frustrated after devoting their attention to 35 seconds of defense which can lead to out of control, impatient possessions on the offensive end. In a way, they force their opponents to play the same slow and ugly style that they are comfortable with.
Tomorrow the Bulls will get Notre Dame in the third round of the Big East Tournament. In their only meeting this year they lost 60-49 at Notre Dame two months ago. The Fighting Irish play this same slow-paced tempo that USF runs, but they are a much better shooting team than USF and they do not turn the ball over nearly as much.
In the end, I will be rooting for South Florida because I want them to make the NCAA Tournament and I actually do think they can beat Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have not shot the ball particularly well of late and they do not have the big bodies down low to match the toughness of the Bulls. This could end up being a very ugly game with bricks galore being chucked around. For South Florida, this will be their biggest game of the season because it is about 'who did you play and who did you beat' and now is the time for USF to prove that they can beat someone. Beating Notre Dame tomorrow night would be their second best win of the year.
Twitter --> @shane_t_mac
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