The Pittsburgh Panthers are currently unranked, sitting 9th in the Big East at 5-4, and are 17-5 overall. However, the advanced metrics and rankings indexes love the Pitt Panthers (6th on Kenpom.com, 9th on LRMC, 12th on Sagarin ratings, and 14th on ESPN’s BPI).
Are they what their record says they are or are they closer to what the advanced analytics suggest?
They have one good win (blowing out Georgetown on the road), with only one real blemish on their resume (at Rutgers). They did play Michigan tough on a neutral court and their win at Villanova is looking better by the day. Other than those four games their non-conference schedule was weak - to put it lightly, while they have lost tough conference games to Cincinnati, Marquette in OT (while playing the entire game without a concussed Tray Woodall), and at Louisville.
The reason why the advanced rankings admire Pitt is due to a combination of their offensive and defensive efficiency, they do not turn the ball over often and they possess one of the best offensive rebounding rates in the country.
Let’s take a look.
Their efficiency numbers are solid:
Pitt is one of the slowest playing teams in the country (not in terms of speed because they play an up-tempo pace, but in terms of maximizing the shot clock and having lengthy possession) as they average 61.3 possessions per 40 minutes, placing them 339th in the country. However, they score 1.18 points per possession (4th best in the country) while only yielding 0.9 points per possession (29th). And when you look at Big East only games (which is more appropriate given their cupcake non-conference schedule) they are scoring 1.07PPP while only yielding 0.95PPP on defense - for an efficiency margin of +.12 (tied for the conference lead with Louisville and Syracuse).
They protect the ball, but take it away from opponents just as well:
The average team in the country turns the ball over on 20.5% of their possession. The Panthers are only turning the ball over on 17.3% of their possession, while taking it away from their opponents on 23.4% of their possession – creating four extra possessions a game. Given that they play slow it is imperative that they take extra care of the ball, but by generating extra possession by forcing turnovers is an added bonus.
The Panthers have a knack for grabbing offensive rebounds:
Pitt shoots a very respectable 48.9% from the field (12th in the country), which is not surprising given their exceptional points per possession rate. But when they do miss they are pulling down a whopping 42.5% of all available offensive rebound opportunities. That rate is second best in the country. And they only allow their opponents to grab their available offensive rebounds 29.8% of the time. This differential yields the Panthers another four possessions in their games.
The problem?
Simply put: foul shooting. While the Panthers do get to the free throw line on an average amount per game, they just don’t make their foul shots when they get there. They are shooting 66.1% from the line, which is good for 256th in the country. And a majority of this issue can be directly attributed to big man Steven Adams, who is shooting a putrid 32.6% from the stripe. And not only does Adams struggle at the line, but for a big man, he struggles just to get to the line. He has only taken 43 foul shots on the year – fifth most on the team. James Robinson, freshman point guard, has more free throw attempts than Adams.
Also with Adams, he just needs to be on the court more. He has played in 56.4% of available minutes this year for Pitt, or fifth most on the team as he seems to pick up an early foul (and often two) every game - forcing him to the bench for large portions of the first half. Adams has shown his inexperience often this season, but the old adage goes: you can’t teach seven foot. Adams is a monster in the low post posing as a mismatch in almost every game. While his touch around the rim and his knowledge of the game continue to improve, it is simply important for him to be on the court just for defensive purposes. His ability to block and alter shots his outstanding.
The verdict?
Pittsburgh is a good team, but they have struggled a bit against better competition throughout the year (not a surprise for any team) and they've yet to break through with a 'marquee' win. However, this team does not necessarily need to get better; they just need Steven Adams to get better. He is a game changer with his size and athleticism. And when watching this team I can definitely say that this is a Sweet 16 caliber team. So given that, the advanced rankings seem to be in the ballpark of how good this team is. And I won't be surprised if they grab some attention this Saturday when they host Syracuse.
Twitter: @shane_t_mac
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