Big East Preview: #1 Louisville Cardinals

Previewing all 15 teams from #15 to #1

By:  Shane McCarthy

After a seemingly improbable run to the Final Four, how will the Cardinals fare when a repeat trip is expected?  This team should be even better than last year’s, but the Big East and NCAA Tournament is a bear.  So before they start booking their tickets for Atlanta, they must take the season one game at a time.

Who’s Back:

Gorgui Dieng –C– Junior – 32.8 Min, 9.1 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 1.1 apg

Peyton Siva –G– Senior – 31.7 Min, 9.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 5.6 apg

Chane Behanan –F– Soph – 26.0 Min, 9.5 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 0.8 apg

Russ Smith –G– Junior – 21.5 Min, 11.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.9 apg

Wayne Blackshear –G/F– Soph – 7.0 Min, 2.5 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 0.1 apg

Kevin Ware –G– Soph – 5.3 Min, 1.0 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 0.5 apg

Angel Nunez –F– Soph – 4.6 Min, 2.0 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 0.2 apg

Incoming Recruits:

Montrezl Harrell – [Power Forward] – 6 foot 7, 225

ESPN’s 90^th ranked player and 18^th ranked Power Forward

Rivals.com’s 82^nd ranked player and 20^th ranked Power Forward

Incoming Transfers:

Luke Hancock – [Guard/Forward] – 6 foot 5, 190

Luke, a transfer from George Mason who was forced to sit out the 2011-12 season, will now be an integral part of a title contender.  As a sophomore at George Mason, he averaged 10.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg and 4.3 apg, and led the team to a 27-7 record and to the second round of the NCAA Tournament in 2010-11.  Coach Pitino has named him co-captain of this year’s squad (along with Peyton Siva) and is expecting big things from him.  “Luke Hancock has been great this year.”  Coach Pitino said.  “He’s our best basketball player.  He’s mentally the best player on the team and physically the best player on the team.  He’s a true basketball player in every sense of the word.”  So expect Luke to be more than just a role player for the Cards this season.  

Who’s Out:  Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith, Rakeem Buckles, Jared Swopshire 

Overview:

When you bring back this much talent from a team that went to the Final Four the previous year – expectations are naturally going to run high, and rightfully so.  If they could do it last year, they should be able to do it again.  Consistency is huge in college basketball, and that is why the Cards are the #2 ranked team in both preseason polls.

It’s fair to expect a Final Four run, and it’s also fair to expect improvements from last season.  They no doubt struggled in the middle of the season and there seemed to be a point where getting into the NCAAs was in jeopardy.  They ended up finishing 11^th in the Big East in scoring and 155^th in the country.   Much of the struggles can be attributed to sloppy play, but injuries also played a role.

Injuries cannot be predicted, but for what it’s worth – the Cards are entering the 2012-13 season healthy.   Last year they played much of the regular season without Wayne Blackshear, a highly touted recruit who was rehabbing a shoulder injury.  When he finally got on the court towards the end of conference play, he struggled.  But on the big stage against Kentucky in the Final Four he showed his potential by going for nine points and four rebounds in just 14 minutes of playing time. 

And the sloppy play from a year ago should be minimized as Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng continue to improve and the young guys have a year of experience.  I already mentioned Blackshear, but Chane Behanan is another player who improved as the season went along and who could be in line for a massive year. 

However, the erratic, sloppy and unpredictable play of Russ Smith does return.  He’s had some ridiculous (aka russdiculous) moments in his career, but his work ethic and burst he brings off the bench is uncanny.  Expect some great moments with an equal amount of head-slapping moments. 

As for the newcomers, Luke Hancock will likely have the biggest impact.  He is a transfer from George Mason who is expected to claim the starting spot that was filled by Kyle Kuric last year.  I tried to find a bad thing said about Hancock, and I failed.  Pitino and all of his former coaches have nothing but great things to say about him.  He’s intelligent, trustworthy, and athletic, has great awareness and can make the big shots.  He sounds like the ideal basketball player.   Montrezl Harrell is a highly recruited incoming freshman who will provide front court depth.

Not only does Louisville have essentially the same roster that went to the Final Four a year ago who is expected to get back there again this year, but Coach Pitino knows a little something about getting to back-to-back Final Fours.  He did it in the 90s at Kentucky.  And he knows it’s no easy task.  There are definitely those who worry that this team was too erratic and untrustworthy last year to be making such bold predictions before the season even starts.  But there are those (including myself) who believe this team never achieved their full potential last year.  They waited until the Big East Tournament to really show off their defensive prowess with their full court press, which suffocated opponents.  They do not need to play that way every game, but when they need to, they are a different team.  Expect this team to be improved offensively (especially Behanan, Blackshear and Dieng with the addition of Hancock), to go along with their stout defense, to be one of the best teams in the country and one that is a serious contender to become national champions.      

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Evaluating the Louisville Cardinals

Good news – there is more good than bad

Peyton Siva opens up the offense with his slashing abilities

By Shane McCarthy on February 17, 2012

The 18^th ranked Louisville Cardinals are currently flaunting a 20-6 overall record and are 8-5 in the Big East Conference. The Big East may not be what it has been in recent years, but their record is still respectable. With only five games remaining in the regular season and the Big East Conference Tournament quickly approaching, it is wide open to what type of seed Louisville will receive in the NCAA Tournament. Whatever it ends up being, the memory of them going down in the 1^st round last year as a 4 seed to the 13-seeded Morehead St. Eagles will loom large. Let us take a look at the positives and negatives of this year’s team.

We’ll get the negatives out of the way first.

• Shooting – Scoring is a pretty important aspect of the game of basketball, and Louisville certainly doesn’t excel at it. Shooting just 43.5% from the field, they are ranked 174^th in the nation.


• Foul shooting – Louisville currently ranks 210^th out of 344 Division 1 teams in FT%, shooting 68.1% from the charity stripe. They are also only converting 57% of the front-end of the 1 and 1s. If they are not going to shoot well from the field, they have to make it a priority to stand out from the free throw line.


• The team goes as Peyton Siva goes – Louisville was humming on all cylinders this past Tuesday night against Syracuse, at least for the first 10 minutes anyway, at which point Siva was yanked from the game after picking up his third foul. The offense seemed to lose its confidence and direction when he went out of the game. This team needs its junior point guard on the floor as often as possible as he drives the bus.
The positives…
• Coach Pitino – Even though they have gone out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament each of the last two years, it is an enormous positive to have a legendary coach that has a NCAA Championship on his resume.


• Hungry team – the core of this team (Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith and Peyton Siva) have experienced quick exits the last two years, and with Kuric and Smith seniors, they are looking for a deep run.


• Get away from conference play – Louisville is 12-1 in non-conference play this year, with that lone loss being a 7 point defeat at Kentucky, by no means a bad loss. The Big East teams know each other so well that it is very difficult to run the table. Seeing different jerseys on the court with them will be a relief, and should give them an advantage.


• Potential unexpected difference maker – This could easily come from the top recruit, freshman Wayne Blackshear. He just returned from injury a few games ago, but look for him to get more comfortable in the next three weeks and begin to play at a high level.


• Size and point guard – I listed Peyton Siva as a negative, but that is only when he’s not able to be on the floor. When he is on the floor, this team plays with confidence and high energy. They also have big athletic bodies down low to control the paint (Dieng and Behanan).


• Defense – I saved the best for last. With opponents shooting a mere 37.2% against, Louisville is the 4^th best team in the country in yielding opponent field goals. This alone keeps them in games. Their full-court press will make for an unwelcoming experience for opponents that have not seen them yet this year.
If Louisville can improve their shooting and maintain their defensive prowess, this team has the potential to make a deep run in the Tournament. The NCAA Tournament brings out each team’s best fight, which means that Louisville could be in for some close ugly games, but they have the upper classmen leadership and experienced coach to will them on to victory. After flaming out each of the last two years, they are due to make it to at least the second weekend.


@shane_t_mac