Previewing the Last Big East Tournament as We Know It

The Big East Tournament will kick off tomorrow and you can probably find hundreds of articles written in the past few days exclaiming that this will be the final Big East Tournament as we know it. And they will all be right. The conference is set to undergo a drastic makeover next year and there won’t be a Big East Tournament that goes by in the future without at least one reference to the power house this conference once was – even if the newly constructed conference becomes just as great one day.

While Connecticut, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s, Seton Hall and Syracuse were the founding members in 1979 that have stuck it out this long, it took multiple instances of additions and subtractions to build it up to where it is today. The most recent influx of teams took place in 2005 when Cincinnati, DePaul, Louisville, Marquette and South Florida joined to make it the beast that it became. The Big East was always regarded as one of the better basketball conferences in the nation throughout the 80s, 90s and early 2000s, but it really became regarded as an all-time great in 2011 when the Big East sent a record 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament – with UConn capping the year off with a national championship. 

Conference realignment has always been a part of collegiate athletics and it will never go away. Who knows, these 15 teams could end up together in a super conference someday down the road.

But instead of crying over the past or worrying about the future, let’s just enjoy the 2013 Big East Tournament over the next five days like we’ve done each and every time over the years.

Here is a preview on what is to come and my predicted bracket…

The Favorites:

Louisville – The Cardinals haven’t lost in over a month as they are in the midst of a 7-game winning streak and don’t have a bad loss on their resume all season. They were the unanimous pick to win the conference and ended up in a three-way share of it, but given the pieces on this team and the run these same guys made last year, I’m going to label them as the favorite.

Georgetown – The Hoyas made a statement on Saturday by destroying Syracuse in the two schools final regular season meeting as conference rivals, to signal to the rest of the Big East that they are for real. A winner of their last 12 of 13 games, and with a player as hot as Otto Porter, this team clearly knows how to emerge victorious.

Under the Radar Team:

Pittsburgh – I know the Panthers earned a double-bye, but this team has gotten very little publicity all season. The advanced metrics are big believers in Pitt, but they have a tendency to go through prolonged scoring droughts. But given that they will likely see Syracuse followed by Georgetown (two teams also known for troubles on the offensive end) before reaching the finals, you have to like their chances. At least I do, anyway.

Dark Horse Teams:

None - I know the Big East has become known for teams making a run to the championship without the luxury of a double-bye, but I don’t think that will be the case this year. I know the obvious candidate here would be Syracuse, but the Orange’s offense has been so consistently awful over the past month that it seems impossible to fix in such short notice. Notre Dame hasn’t impressed me at all on the road, and unfortunately the winner of the St. John’s vs. Villanova game on Wednesday has to see a well rest Louisville the next day.  Marquette, who shared the Big East regular season crown with Louisville and Georgetown and who also earned a double-bye, is another team that I find difficult to get excited about away from their home court.  And the four teams that play on Tuesday night – Rutgers, Seton Hall, South Florida and DePaul – are all atrocious and have absolutely no shot.

Players to Watch:

Otto Porter – He is going to be the unanimous selection for Big East Player of the Year, and rightfully so -  he can take over a game and put the entire team on his back en route to a victory.  He may be the best stretch four in the country and look for him to impose his will on opponents as needed.

Peyton Siva – While his season was rather disappointing given that he was selected as the pre-season player of the year, he is still the floor general of the Cardinals. Look for the senior point guard to pick up his play as it matters most and reemerge as one of the better distributing point guards in the country.  He just needs to be sure to not get into foul trouble – an area he struggled with throughout the season.

Steven Adams – The freshman big might be the only player in the Big East that can match up with Gorgui Dieng and not be outmatched from a physical standpoint. However, Adams isn’t as skilled or experienced, but if he can stay on the floor his presence alone could be effective enough for the Panthers to make a run at it.

Jack Cooley – If you could somehow quantify hardest working player in the conference, Cooley is probably it. There is no question that he is one of if not the best rebounder in the Big East, but he will need to step it up defensively if the Irish are to have a chance.  Offense isn’t the problem for the Irish, it’s their defense.  Look for Cooley to turn it up a notch and own the paint. 

My Bracket Prediction:

Let me know who you guys think will win and why.

Enjoy

Twitter:  @ShaneInBigEast

The Final Stretch of the Big East Season

The 18-game Big East season comes to a conclusion this Saturday, and who is to be league champion is a three horse race heading into the finish line.  Georgetown, Louisville and Marquette are the contenders, and this could be a race that isn’t decided until the last day of the season.

Georgetown Hoyas (13-3 / 0 games back)

Picked to finish 5^th in the 2012-12 Coaches Poll

The Hoyas are the team in the driver’s seat.  They control their own destiny because they only need to win one of their two games left and the league title is theirs.  But that’s easier said than done, because of the five games remaining amongst the three teams in contention they easily have the two most difficult games.

                - At Villanova on Wednesday

                - Hosting Syracuse on Saturday

Georgetown will be getting a very desperate Wildcats team on Wednesday night who just blew a game at Pittsburgh over the weekend that would have almost assured them a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  And Nova has been known to take down some giants (Louisville and Syracuse) on their home floor this year.  Then their home clash with the Syracuse Orange, the very last time these two will face off as Big East foes in the regular season, will obviously be a heavyweight fight.  Expect a lot of emotion and physical play in this game for a lot of reasons, but a Syracuse revenge game factor being the most prominent. 

However, as already stated above - all that the Hoyas need to do is win one of these games and they are crowned Big East champions.  They currently have a half game lead over the Louisville Cardinals, but they own the tiebreaker against them as they beat them in the two teams only meeting. 

Louisville Cardinals (13-4 / .5 game back)

Unanimous selection to finish 1^st in the 2012-13 Coaches Poll

It’s very difficult to say that anyone is playing better than Georgetown currently considering they have rattled off 11 straight victories, but boy are the Louisville Cardinals playing good ball these days.  If the Hoyas and Cardinals were to square off on a neutral court today (or hopefully next week for real), I’d like the Cardinals.  But that’s not the topic at hand here, and Louisville already had their shot against Georgetown earlier in the season and failed (however, the game was away). 

                - Hosting Notre Dame on Saturday

I don’t expect the Cardinals to have much trouble with the Irish this weekend, but they will need assistance from Villanova and Syracuse if they are to accomplish what all the coaches expected of them in the preseason.  

Marquette Golden Eagles (12-4 / 1 game back)

Picked to finish 7^th in the 2012-13 Coaches Poll

It’s amazing the job Buzz Williams does year after year.  Marquette didn’t play much of a non-conference schedule, but when they got smoked by Florida and lost to Wisconsin Green Bay, it looked as if a 7^th place finish or even worse in the Big East was likely.  Now the Golden Eagles are sitting with four losses in the conference with two games to go.

                - At Rutgers on Tuesday

                - At St. John’s on Saturday

Marquette will be favored to win both of these games, but it won’t be easy.  Of their seven losses on the season, all seven have come on the road.  So this will be a good test for this team before heading into tournament season.  The Golden Eagles are a long shot to win the league as they need Georgetown and Louisville to lose their remaining games, but they can’t be complaining too much considered where they were picked to finish in the league and how their season began.  

Changed my Twitter handle - it is now @ShaneInBigEast

Taking a Look at The Russdiculous End to the Notre Dame vs. Louisville Game

By now, if you didn’t watch the game last night, you’ve all seen the highlights of the epic five-overtime thriller between Notre Dame and Louisville.  We all know that Jerian Grant scored 12 points in the final 45 seconds, that Garrick Sherman scored 17 points without getting a minute of playing time in regulation, and that Louisville just couldn’t close.  But let’s take a look at the final moments of regulation and each of the overtimes, because Russ Smith may have broken a record for most game-winners missed in a single game.  Seriously.  If such a record existed, it was surely broken last night.

End of Regulation:

Peyton Siva dribbles to the top of the key, looks to have a wide open jumper if he wants to take it, but decides to dump it down to Gorgui Dieng in the low-post with three guys around him, and can’t handle it.  No shot is attempted.

End of 1^st Overtime:

Russ Smith slowly dribbles the ball up the court, comes to a complete stop at half court with roughly five seconds remaining, and Russ, seemingly unaware that the clock is running, is forced to jack a 3 from about 10 feet beyond the 3-point line, and it clanks off the glass and rims out.

End of 2^nd Overtime:

This time Russ Smith slowly dribbles past half court, but has enough time so that he can attempt a drive.  He opts to go left and his erratic, running extended layup from high off the glass doesn’t even hit the rim.  Chane Behanan gets a chance with the put back, but it was highly contested and rushed, and also didn’t get any rim.

 

End of 3^rd Overtime:

Louisville is forced to go the length of the court after inbounding it from under their own basket in less than four seconds.  Obviously they inbound to Russ, he runs and dribbles as fast as he can, and he attempts a running jumper from approximately the 3-point line.  The attempt didn’t go and it wouldn’t have mattered because the ball was still in his hand when the buzzer sounded. 

End of 4^th Overtime:

The Cardinals once again have to go the length of the court upon inbounding it from the opposite end, but this time they have just over six seconds to work with.  Again they inbound the ball to Smith, he scampers down the floor only to have it knocked away at the 3-point line, but he is able to regain control just in time to jack a fade-away five feet beyond the arc that ends up being an airball. 

End of 5^th Overtime:

This time the circumstances are different.  Instead of the game being tied like the previous instances, Louisville is now down three with under 10 seconds to play.  But like the four previous overtime periods the ball was in Russ Smith’s hands last.  On this occasion he dribbles to the top left of the arc, sets himself right in front of Coach Pitino (hoping for him to will it in I presume), but the deep three clanks off the iron.  The Irish win.

Summary:

The Louisville Cardinals had the final shot at the end of regulation and every overtime period, opted to not use an available timeout in every instance, didn’t get a shot off once, and Russ Smith had the ball in his hands for the final possession in all five overtimes and didn’t make a single shot.  I have a feeling that not only will the Cards use a timeout in these situations in the future, but they will be dedicating large portions of their practice sessions to these situations over the next month.  And maybe next time they will actually have some sort of set play to run rather than it just being a chaotic Russdiculous situation. 

Twitter:  @soupTOOnuts

What the Orange Lose while James Southerland is Investigated by the NCAA

Southerland in street clothes awaiting his verdict

As we all know, Syracuse senior, James Southerland, was ruled ineligible prior to their home game versus Villanova this past Saturday. The Orange went on to win that game 72-61 and extend their home winning streak to 34 (the longest current streak in college basketball), but that was after another mediocre first half – which is something of a common theme for the Orange this year.

Coach Boeheim has said that Southerland’s situation is "troubling", but that it is something that "could be resolved." That doesn’t sound very encouraging.

And the most recent rumors regarding the specifics behind his situation are that he got help from a tutor on a term paper or that the tutor actually wrote a term paper for him.  This is apparently what the NCAA is investigating, and given their track record of being anything but prompt with these situations, it could be a while before a ruling is made.

The loss of Southerland from the lineup, for however long this lasts (which could be season ending), is no doubt a negative for the Orange.  

This may not sound logical, but while the Orange are one of the best scoring teams in the nation (79.0 PPG which is 16th best in the country) they aren’t really a great scoring team. They force turnovers on 25.6% of their opponent’s possessions (10th best in the country) which leads to a plethora of easy points in transition. However, as a team they only shoot 45.6% from the floor (74th in the country) and 31.9% from three (238^th in the country).

Southerland, who hasn’t started a game all season but is the first man off the bench usually around the first media timeout mark, averages 26.3 minutes per game (fourth most on the team) and has played 61.8% of all available minutes this season. When in the game he is essentially noted as the team’s most lethal shooter, shooting 49.4% from the field and 37.5% from three, averaging 13.6 points per game, while taking 25.6% of the team’s shots when on the floor.

And standing at 6-foot-8, he is incredibly difficult to guard on the outside for most teams and he is absolutely deadly taking drop passes for Michael Carter-Williams in transition and burying threes.

But standing that tall also makes him an ideal fit in the 2-3 zone as he locks down the wings and corners.

The Orange are now pressed with the task to replace both his offensive production and defensive presence. Since obviously those usage minutes, shots and points won’t just go away, there will have to be a player or two that steps up.

It is clear that the beneficiaries of Southerland’s situation will be Jerami Grant and Trevor Cooney. Grant a freshman and Cooney a red-shirt freshman average 12.2 and 13.6 minutes, and 4.4 and 4.9 points per game respectively.

Ideally, Syracuse would want to mold these two into one player, which was exactly what Southerland was – being a sharpshooter from the outside which is all that Cooney is really supposed to be good at, in conjunction with being tall and instinctive enough to play down low a little bit along with fitting ideally into the zone like Grant does.

When Southerland was on the floor, Syracuse had an average plus/minus of +13.8 per game. That is fifth best on the team and 12^th best in the Big East Conference.

You don’t need me to tell you that the Orange are clearly losing significant production with Southerland out of the lineup. However, Syracuse is a very good team with a deep bench. Unfortunately for the first 15 games Southerland was far and away the best player off the bench which was indicative of why he was essentially getting starter minutes night in and night out. Now they will need one or two guys to step up in his place. This will be good enough on most nights, but I don’t believe a road game at Louisville that looms tomorrow is going to be a welcoming experience for them.

Last year’s loss of Fab Melo right before the NCAA Tournament was essentially a season-ending blow to the team.  They made it to the Elite 8, but that team was much better than that with Fab in the lineup.  The loss of Southerland isn’t on the same level, but it is a blow to the team’s talent level and depth.  Syracuse faithful and college basketball fans alike are just hoping that this issue is resolved at some point this season, but unfortunately for Orange fans - losing a key player in some shape or form on a good team is not uncommon in recent history.  

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Chane Behanan to Miss 7-10 Days with High Ankle Sprain

Louisville forward, Chane Behanan, is expected to be sidelined for 7-10 days after spraining his ankle in practice on Monday.

The 7-10 day timetable is important because in 11 days (Saturday, January 19^th) the Louisville Cardinals host the #7 Syracuse Orange at the Yum! Center.

The Cardinals play three games in between now and then – at Seton Hall tomorrow night (which he has already been ruled out for), home for South Florida on Saturday, and at Connecticut next Monday.

All of those games fall short of the expected timeframe, but even so – there is no way he is touching the court with the monster match-up with the Orange looming.  Ankle injuries can be tricky, but the Cards staff will be doing everything in their power to get Behanan as close to 100% as possible for the highly anticipated match-up; a game (while early in the season) that could decide the Big East regular season title.

Behanan has been a significant contributor for Louisville - averaging 26.4 minutes, 11.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per game.

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Time to Get Back to Action

The busy holiday season has forced me to go over two weeks without blogging.  I’m not happy about that.  But in between traveling, eating, drinking, shopping, spending hours to wrap a handful of presents, more traveling, eating and drinking, I’ve found little time to sit down and write.  But that doesn’t mean I haven’t been watching Big East basketball; because I made sure to get my fill.  Well, in fairness, I watched the games that didn’t involve Alcorn St.

With the non-conference portion of the schedule over with (finally), and with every team getting at least one conference game in the books, it’s time for me to step it up.  With that, let’s go over what happened in the past two-plus weeks during my writing absence.  

Kevin Ollie Received a Contract Extension

It was 12 games into his one-year trial that Kevin Ollie deservingly received a five-year contract extension from the University of Connecticut.  The deal is supposedly worth ~$7 million, but more importantly brings stability to the program.  Recruiting and retaining players should be much easier now that they know who they are playing for.  Ollie has done an excellent job coaching a team that essentially has nothing to play for at the end of the season.  This team could have easily rolled over with no conference tournament or NCAAs in their future, but they have gotten out to a 10-3 start, led by their superb guard play.  Congrats to Ollie and kudos to the Huskies for standing strong.

Boeheim Passes Knight

In Syracuse’s Big East conference opener at home on January 2, the Orange beat Rutgers 78-53 to propel Coach Boeheim to number 2 on the all-time wins list.  Most impressive about the accomplishment is that he achieved every single victory at Syracuse - a feat that we will likely never see again.  He now trails Coach Krzyzewski by 37 wins.  But with Coach K still coaching and thriving at Duke, it will be difficult for Boeheim to cut into the deficit any time soon.  

Dieng Returns and the Cards Beat Kentucky

The Louisville Cardinals had been playing without their center, Gorgui Dieng, since Thanksgiving, when he broke his wrist at the Battle 4 Atlantis.  However, he returned on December 29^th, the day of their much anticipated game with interstate rival Kentucky.  Dieng came off the bench and only played 20 minutes, but he made his presence felt on the defensive end by snatching seven boards and recording two blocks.  KenPom ranks Louisville as the second best defensive team in the country and Dieng will be a key reason why that will continue.  

Syracuse Loses in Their Second Home

Temple had just come off a home loss to Canisius (Go Griffs!); while Syracuse was cruising through their non-conference portion of the schedule looking to enter Big East play undefeated.  But on Saturday, December 22nd in Madison Square Garden, the Owls had different plans.  Khalif Wyatt went off for 33 points, seemingly hitting everything in the second half, while the Orange missed 15 free throws.  Temple attempted two more free throws than Syracuse did (36 vs 34), but they only missed seven.  This proved to be the difference as the Orange fell uncharacteristically in the Garden to a non-conference opponent 83-79.

Todd Mayo Returns for Marquette

Prior to the season kicking off, Todd Mayo was ruled academically ineligible, and it sounded as if his time at Marquette had come to an end.  However, out of nowhere seemingly, he was reinstated as soon as the first semester was complete.  Some find this suspicious as the Golden Eagles were coming off an embarrassing loss at the hands of Green Bay, and feel they were desperate to improve the team, even if that did mean not honoring team discipline practices.  Who knows if that was the case?  Mayo may have propelled himself to becoming Marquette’s most upstanding student in the entire university for all I know.  However, what I do know is that Marquette is 4-0 since his return, including two close but impressive wins at home over UConn and Georgetown to start 2-0 in conference play. 

No Un-Beatens Entered Big East Play

Louisville fell way back in November to Duke (albeit without Dieng on the court), but it looked as if one or two teams would reach Big East play without a blemish on their resume.  As already mentioned, Syracuse fell to Temple on a ‘neutral’ court, but it looked as if Cincinnati might pull it off.  However, the Bearcats lost to New Mexico at home 55-54 in their last non-conference game before Big East play started.  

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Dieng Goes Down with a Broken Wrist

By:  Shane McCarthy

In the Cardinals second round matchup with Missouri in the Battle 4 Atlantis on Friday night, Gorgui Dieng absorbed a charge and took a spill to the floor. Instinctively and naturally, he braced his fall by putting his arms down to soften the blow with the hardwood. He ended up leaving the game for a brief period, but returned with his left wrist taped up. The next night, in the championship game against #5 Duke, the injury was deemed severe enough that Dieng had to sit on the bench in street clothes as his team fell in a closely contested battle with the Blue Devils.

Upon returning to Louisville on Sunday, it was determined that Dieng had actually broken his left wrist - the scaphoid bone to be exact. And as of this writing, there is no timetable for his return.

First and foremost you have to feel bad for Dieng. Last year he improved his game to the point that he became nationally recognized. But this was supposed to be his break out year. He has risen to become one of the most formidable centers in the country, causing the opposition to think twice about how they attacked and guarded the paint. Standing at 6 foot 11, he was finally understanding how to play the game and was becoming much more athletic, averaging a full two blocks per game. But now the Cards must move on without him, for a period of time anyway.

It looks as if Coach Pitino is going to go with the combination of Zach Price (6 foot 10 sophomore) and Stephan Van Treese (6 foot 9 junior) to fill in for Dieng. And freshman Montrezl Harrell (6 foot 8) has shown that he can hold his own in the paint at forward. On Saturday night against Duke the two (Price and Van Treese) combined for 12 points, 11 rebounds and one block. Very respectable. And even though the final outcome was a 76-71 loss, the game was encouraging. They went toe-to-toe with the #5 team in the country on a neutral court, without arguably their best defender, without a single practice to adjust, and almost came away with a victory.

Louisville is clearly a different team without Dieng on the court. But the combination of Price, Van Treese and Harrell to go along with Chane Behanan (who leads the team in rebounding with 8.5 per game) is still a strong front court. And that’s without mentioning the excellent back court and engine of this team in Peyton Siva, Wayne Blackshear, Luke Hancock and Russ Smith who is playing ‘russdiculous’ right now. They may not be looked at as the #2 team in the country today, but they will continue to roll out a tough lineup night after night and play stingy defense. But their odds of getting back to the Final Four will be greater if Dieng has a speedy recovery. For his sake and the team’s, Card fans will be hoping for the best, but they know Dieng’s injury won’t result in a lost season. There is too much talent on this roster to think that.

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Big East Teams in Feast Week Tournaments

By:  Shane McCarthy

Over the next four days there are a number of college basketball tournaments to take place.  Even though most of the country will be on a long weekend, it is difficult to fit college hoops in between eating, family gatherings, football, shopping, eating, more football and even more eating. 

But if you get a chance to fit some hoops in, there are some real good tournaments going down.  Here are the Big East teams that will be taking part:

Pittsburgh - NIT Season Tip-Off (Wednesday and Friday)
Tonights game is the marquee game:  Pittsburgh vs. #4 Michigan at the Garden.

Louisville - Battle 4 Atlantis (Thursday thru Saturday)
This is an eight team field with four top-25 teams.  The potential for high-caliber match-ups is probable.  A Louisville vs. Duke championship would draw a few eyes.

Cincinnati - Global Sports Classic (Friday and Saturday)
This is a four team tournament taking place in Vegas.  Cincinnati has yet to be tested, but a potential matchup with UNLV (a home game for the Rebels) would give them a feel for where they stand. 

There are plenty of other games spread throughout the weekend (including Marquette and DePaul playing in consolation games tonight), but these are all the tournament games to be played out. 

I'll be back on Monday with the first installment of the Big East power rankings, and will likely send a tweet here and there in the meantime. 

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Big East 2012-13 Predictions

By:  Shane McCarthy

April seems forever ago, but the wait is finally over and the season starts tonight.  But before we get to actual games, let’s make a few more predictions to add to the excitement.

Big East Regular Season Title:  Louisville

Too much depth and experience.

Big East Tournament Title:  Syracuse

After watching UConn and Louisville streak through the tournament the last two years, it will be Cuse’s turn this year.

NCAA Tournament bids:  7

Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Georgetown

And given the seemingly wide-open nature of college basketball this year, I predict two Big East teams will make the Final Four. 

Player of the Year:  Michael Carter-Williams

I think Syracuse is going to be really good this year [again], and the reason being is going to be MCW.  He will mold into an excellent point guard who not only scores and plays excellent defense, but makes everyone on the floor better.

Rookie of the Year:  Steven Adams

There is a little bit of hype surrounding the freshmen center at Pittsburgh.  The 7 foot, 240 pound New Zealander will give opposing teams fits on both ends of the floor.

Defensive Player of the Year:  Gorgui Dieng

Every year Dieng has improved little by little.  And it looked like he was improving every game last year to the point where he became one of the best centers in the country.  He will be even better this year and will be one of the best shot blockers in the country.

Coach of the Year:  Buzz Williams

Buzz is an excellent coach who tends to get more out of his players than anyone ever expects.  I’m high on Marquette this year, while others are lukewarm, and by exceeding expectations he will earn coach of the year honors. 

All-Big East First Team

G:  Michael Carter-Williams

G:  Peyton Siva

G:  Vincent Council

F:  Gorgui Dieng

F:  Otto Porter

F:  Jack Cooley 

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Big East Preview: #1 Louisville Cardinals

Previewing all 15 teams from #15 to #1

By:  Shane McCarthy

After a seemingly improbable run to the Final Four, how will the Cardinals fare when a repeat trip is expected?  This team should be even better than last year’s, but the Big East and NCAA Tournament is a bear.  So before they start booking their tickets for Atlanta, they must take the season one game at a time.

Who’s Back:

Gorgui Dieng –C– Junior – 32.8 Min, 9.1 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 1.1 apg

Peyton Siva –G– Senior – 31.7 Min, 9.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 5.6 apg

Chane Behanan –F– Soph – 26.0 Min, 9.5 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 0.8 apg

Russ Smith –G– Junior – 21.5 Min, 11.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.9 apg

Wayne Blackshear –G/F– Soph – 7.0 Min, 2.5 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 0.1 apg

Kevin Ware –G– Soph – 5.3 Min, 1.0 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 0.5 apg

Angel Nunez –F– Soph – 4.6 Min, 2.0 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 0.2 apg

Incoming Recruits:

Montrezl Harrell – [Power Forward] – 6 foot 7, 225

ESPN’s 90^th ranked player and 18^th ranked Power Forward

Rivals.com’s 82^nd ranked player and 20^th ranked Power Forward

Incoming Transfers:

Luke Hancock – [Guard/Forward] – 6 foot 5, 190

Luke, a transfer from George Mason who was forced to sit out the 2011-12 season, will now be an integral part of a title contender.  As a sophomore at George Mason, he averaged 10.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg and 4.3 apg, and led the team to a 27-7 record and to the second round of the NCAA Tournament in 2010-11.  Coach Pitino has named him co-captain of this year’s squad (along with Peyton Siva) and is expecting big things from him.  “Luke Hancock has been great this year.”  Coach Pitino said.  “He’s our best basketball player.  He’s mentally the best player on the team and physically the best player on the team.  He’s a true basketball player in every sense of the word.”  So expect Luke to be more than just a role player for the Cards this season.  

Who’s Out:  Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith, Rakeem Buckles, Jared Swopshire 

Overview:

When you bring back this much talent from a team that went to the Final Four the previous year – expectations are naturally going to run high, and rightfully so.  If they could do it last year, they should be able to do it again.  Consistency is huge in college basketball, and that is why the Cards are the #2 ranked team in both preseason polls.

It’s fair to expect a Final Four run, and it’s also fair to expect improvements from last season.  They no doubt struggled in the middle of the season and there seemed to be a point where getting into the NCAAs was in jeopardy.  They ended up finishing 11^th in the Big East in scoring and 155^th in the country.   Much of the struggles can be attributed to sloppy play, but injuries also played a role.

Injuries cannot be predicted, but for what it’s worth – the Cards are entering the 2012-13 season healthy.   Last year they played much of the regular season without Wayne Blackshear, a highly touted recruit who was rehabbing a shoulder injury.  When he finally got on the court towards the end of conference play, he struggled.  But on the big stage against Kentucky in the Final Four he showed his potential by going for nine points and four rebounds in just 14 minutes of playing time. 

And the sloppy play from a year ago should be minimized as Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng continue to improve and the young guys have a year of experience.  I already mentioned Blackshear, but Chane Behanan is another player who improved as the season went along and who could be in line for a massive year. 

However, the erratic, sloppy and unpredictable play of Russ Smith does return.  He’s had some ridiculous (aka russdiculous) moments in his career, but his work ethic and burst he brings off the bench is uncanny.  Expect some great moments with an equal amount of head-slapping moments. 

As for the newcomers, Luke Hancock will likely have the biggest impact.  He is a transfer from George Mason who is expected to claim the starting spot that was filled by Kyle Kuric last year.  I tried to find a bad thing said about Hancock, and I failed.  Pitino and all of his former coaches have nothing but great things to say about him.  He’s intelligent, trustworthy, and athletic, has great awareness and can make the big shots.  He sounds like the ideal basketball player.   Montrezl Harrell is a highly recruited incoming freshman who will provide front court depth.

Not only does Louisville have essentially the same roster that went to the Final Four a year ago who is expected to get back there again this year, but Coach Pitino knows a little something about getting to back-to-back Final Fours.  He did it in the 90s at Kentucky.  And he knows it’s no easy task.  There are definitely those who worry that this team was too erratic and untrustworthy last year to be making such bold predictions before the season even starts.  But there are those (including myself) who believe this team never achieved their full potential last year.  They waited until the Big East Tournament to really show off their defensive prowess with their full court press, which suffocated opponents.  They do not need to play that way every game, but when they need to, they are a different team.  Expect this team to be improved offensively (especially Behanan, Blackshear and Dieng with the addition of Hancock), to go along with their stout defense, to be one of the best teams in the country and one that is a serious contender to become national champions.      

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Power Rankings / A Look Back & Ahead 2-27-12



Dion Waiters and Cuse out-dueled UConn on Saturday

Gearing up for the conference tournament

By Shane McCarthy on February 27, 2012

1.     #2 Syracuse Orange (29-1 / 16-1)

Last week:  WON 56-48 vs South Florida, WON 71-69 @ Connecticut

This week:  Sat, March 3 vs Louisville

The only semi-negative thing you can say about the Orange is that they have trouble putting together 40 minutes of the good basketball that they are capable of playing, but this team is 29-1, #2 in the country, have not lost with Fab Melo in the lineup, and always find a way to win.  Being so deep and talented, there are only a handful of teams that can matchup with them barring an off-shooting night.

2.     #7 Marquette Golden Eagles (24-5 / 13-3)

Last week:  WON 82-65 vs Rutgers, WON 61-60 @ West Virginia

This week:  Wed, Feb 29 @ Cincinnati; Sat, March 3 vs Georgetown

Part of me wants to power rank Marquette #1, but that's difficult to warrant without an Orange loss.  They are playing at a very high level right now, as was on display Friday night when the Golden Eagles beat West Virginia without DJO, Blue and Cadougan playing the first half.  I would like to see this team get another shot at Syracuse in the Big East Tournament.        

3.     #12 Georgetown Hoyas (21-6 / 11-5)

Last week:  LOSS 73-55 @ Seton Hall, WON 67-46 vs Villanova

This week:  Mon, Feb 27 vs Notre Dame, Sat, March 3 @ Marquette

The Hoyas slipped up at a desperate Seton Hall team in the middle of the week, but they recovered nicely with a decisive win at home over Villanova on Saturday.  They aren’t the most talented team offensively, but they wreak havoc on the defensive end.   They will be a tough team to prep for on short notice.

4.     #18 Louisville Cardinals (22-7 / 10-6)

Last week:  LOSS 60-56 @ Cincinnati, WON 57-54 vs Pittsburgh

This week:  Wed, Feb 29 vs South Florida; Sat, March 3 @ Syracuse

The Cardinals haven’t been playing their best basketball as of late, but they are still a talented team that can stay on the floor with anyone.  They get a desperate South Florida team and another shot at Syracuse this week to garner some momentum heading into the Big East Tournament.

5.     #19 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (20-9 / 12-4)

Last week:  WON 71-44 vs West Virginia, LOSS 61-58 @ St. John’s

This week:  Mon, Feb 27 @ Georgetown; Fri, March 2 vs Providence

After reeling off nine straight victories, the Irish faltered at St. John’s over the weekend.  As poorly as they shot the ball and as little involved that Jack Cooley was, it was encouraging that they only lost by three.  They are in for a tough game at Georgetown on Monday night, but they are more than capable of winning.

6.     Connecticut Huskies (17-11 / 7-9)

Last week:  WON 73-70 OT @ Villanova, LOSS 71-69 vs Syracuse

This week:  Tue, Feb 28 @ Providence; Sat, March 3 vs Pittsburgh

Tough loss at home to Syracuse, but it was encouraging to see them come back from 17 down in the second half.  They could be the most talented team in the conference if they could display more cohesiveness and showed some controlled urgency on the court.   I do not think anyone would be surprised if the Huskies won the Big East Tournament in two weeks.  Maybe the return of Coach Calhoun will bring the spark they need.

7.     Cincinnati Bearcats (20-9 / 10-6)

Last week:  WON 60-56 vs Louisville, LOSS 46-45 @ South Florida

This week:  Wed, Feb 29 vs Marquette; Sat, March 3 @ Villanova

After Sunday’s loss at South Florida, the Bearcats are probably back on the bubble.  Cincinnati is a tough team to figure out as they have been incredibly inconsistent all year long.  They have a tough matchup in Marquette this week, but a win will put them firmly back in the tournament.

8.     West Virginia Mountaineers (17-12 / 7-9)

Last week:  LOSS 71-44 @ Notre Dame, LOSS 61-60 vs Marquette

This week:  Tue, Feb 28 vs DePaul; Sat, March 3 @ South Florida

Very tough loss at home on Friday night to a short-staked Marquette team.  Coach Huggins should probably put a limit on the number of shots Truck Bryant is allowed to take per game.  Once he sees a few go through the bucket, he’ll shoot a trillion times if he could.  They have two favorable matchups this week to get back on the right track, but they have work to do.

9.     South Florida Bulls (18-11 / 11-5)

Last week:  LOSS 56-48 @ Syracuse, WON 46-45 vs Cincinnati

This week:  Wed, Feb 29 @ Louisville; Sat, March 3 vs West Virginia

Well, for the first half of the first half it looked as if South Florida was going to take down Syracuse, but come to find out, winning the first 10 minutes of a basketball game is worthless unless you win all 40.  Their bounce-back win [and their first notable win at that], over Cincinnati had the feel of a tournament game as both teams knew the importance of it.  More work is probably needed by the Bulls and they will get that chance at Louisville this week. 

10.  Seton Hall Pirates (19-10 / 8-9)

Last week:  WON 73-55 vs Georgetown, LOSS 77-72 OT vs Rutgers

This week:  Sat, March 3 @ DePaul

All that Seton Hall needed to do after getting that noteworthy win over Georgetown, was not take a bad loss; which meant not losing at home to Rutgers.  Of course, however, that is exactly what they did.  DePaul is an absolute must win this week and a win in the Big East Tournament may be a necessity at this point.    

11.  Pittsburgh Panthers (15-14 / 4-12)

Last week:  LOSS 57-54 @ Louisville

This week:  Wed, Feb 29 vs St. John’s; Sat, March 3 @ Connecticut

The disaster season for Pitt continues as they have now lost five in a row.  I’m not sure what they were thinking when they were down three at L’ville with 13 seconds left going for a two, fouling, and ultimately giving themselves less time to tie the game with a three point desperation heave.  Nonetheless, this team is still putting up a fight and possesses talent.  It’s highly unlikely, but I suppose they could somehow pull it together in time for the Big East Tournament.

12.  St. John’s Red Storm (13-16 / 6-10)

Last week:  WON 79-72 vs DePaul, WON 61-58 vs Notre Dame

This week:  Wed, Feb 29 @ Pittsburgh; Sat, Feb 3 @ Rutgers

St. John’s is a fun team to watch right now as they have been playing better basketball as of late, taking down UCLA and Notre Dame in the past two weeks.  Moe Harkless has to be the frontrunner for Big East Rookie of the Year and he has his team poised for an upset in the Big East Tournament. 

13.  Rutgers Scarlet Knights (13-16 / 5-11)

Last week:  LOSS 82-65 @ Marquette, WON 77-72 OT @ Seton Hall

This week:  Thu, March 1 vs Villanova; Sat, March 3 vs St. John’s

Rutgers played spoiler role at Seton Hall over the weekend and their season finale matchup with St. John’s this week should be a fun one.  Both teams are talented, just raw, but it makes for entertaining basketball.

14.  Villanova Wildcats (11-17 / 4-12)

Last week:  LOSS 73-70 OT vs Connecticut, LOSS 67-46 vs Georgetown

This week:  Thu, March 1 @ Rutgers; Sat, March 3 vs Cincinnati

You know you are having a rough season when one of your starters, JayVaughn Pinkston, comes down on a ball after dunking in warm-ups and turns his ankle.  It’s almost over Villanova, two more weeks.

15.   Providence Friars (14-15 / 3-13)

Last week:  WON 73-71 @ DePaul

This week:  Tue, Feb 28 vs Connecticut; Fri, March 2 @ Notre Dame

Providence handled DePaul to get out of the Big East basement on Saturday.  For a team that is 3-13 - you have to appreciate the little things. 

16.   DePaul Blue Demons (11-17 / 2-14)

Last week:  LOSS 79-72 @ St. John’s, LOSS 73-71 vs Providence

This week:  Tue, Feb 28 @ West Virginia; Sat, March 3 vs Seton Hall

The Blue Demons have lost 13 of their last 14.  Not really much else to say besides that they have been competitive in their last three games.  

@shane_t_mac

Evaluating the Louisville Cardinals

Good news – there is more good than bad

Peyton Siva opens up the offense with his slashing abilities

By Shane McCarthy on February 17, 2012

The 18^th ranked Louisville Cardinals are currently flaunting a 20-6 overall record and are 8-5 in the Big East Conference. The Big East may not be what it has been in recent years, but their record is still respectable. With only five games remaining in the regular season and the Big East Conference Tournament quickly approaching, it is wide open to what type of seed Louisville will receive in the NCAA Tournament. Whatever it ends up being, the memory of them going down in the 1^st round last year as a 4 seed to the 13-seeded Morehead St. Eagles will loom large. Let us take a look at the positives and negatives of this year’s team.

We’ll get the negatives out of the way first.

• Shooting – Scoring is a pretty important aspect of the game of basketball, and Louisville certainly doesn’t excel at it. Shooting just 43.5% from the field, they are ranked 174^th in the nation.


• Foul shooting – Louisville currently ranks 210^th out of 344 Division 1 teams in FT%, shooting 68.1% from the charity stripe. They are also only converting 57% of the front-end of the 1 and 1s. If they are not going to shoot well from the field, they have to make it a priority to stand out from the free throw line.


• The team goes as Peyton Siva goes – Louisville was humming on all cylinders this past Tuesday night against Syracuse, at least for the first 10 minutes anyway, at which point Siva was yanked from the game after picking up his third foul. The offense seemed to lose its confidence and direction when he went out of the game. This team needs its junior point guard on the floor as often as possible as he drives the bus.
The positives…
• Coach Pitino – Even though they have gone out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament each of the last two years, it is an enormous positive to have a legendary coach that has a NCAA Championship on his resume.


• Hungry team – the core of this team (Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith and Peyton Siva) have experienced quick exits the last two years, and with Kuric and Smith seniors, they are looking for a deep run.


• Get away from conference play – Louisville is 12-1 in non-conference play this year, with that lone loss being a 7 point defeat at Kentucky, by no means a bad loss. The Big East teams know each other so well that it is very difficult to run the table. Seeing different jerseys on the court with them will be a relief, and should give them an advantage.


• Potential unexpected difference maker – This could easily come from the top recruit, freshman Wayne Blackshear. He just returned from injury a few games ago, but look for him to get more comfortable in the next three weeks and begin to play at a high level.


• Size and point guard – I listed Peyton Siva as a negative, but that is only when he’s not able to be on the floor. When he is on the floor, this team plays with confidence and high energy. They also have big athletic bodies down low to control the paint (Dieng and Behanan).


• Defense – I saved the best for last. With opponents shooting a mere 37.2% against, Louisville is the 4^th best team in the country in yielding opponent field goals. This alone keeps them in games. Their full-court press will make for an unwelcoming experience for opponents that have not seen them yet this year.
If Louisville can improve their shooting and maintain their defensive prowess, this team has the potential to make a deep run in the Tournament. The NCAA Tournament brings out each team’s best fight, which means that Louisville could be in for some close ugly games, but they have the upper classmen leadership and experienced coach to will them on to victory. After flaming out each of the last two years, they are due to make it to at least the second weekend.


@shane_t_mac