What the Orange Lose while James Southerland is Investigated by the NCAA

Southerland in street clothes awaiting his verdict

As we all know, Syracuse senior, James Southerland, was ruled ineligible prior to their home game versus Villanova this past Saturday. The Orange went on to win that game 72-61 and extend their home winning streak to 34 (the longest current streak in college basketball), but that was after another mediocre first half – which is something of a common theme for the Orange this year.

Coach Boeheim has said that Southerland’s situation is "troubling", but that it is something that "could be resolved." That doesn’t sound very encouraging.

And the most recent rumors regarding the specifics behind his situation are that he got help from a tutor on a term paper or that the tutor actually wrote a term paper for him.  This is apparently what the NCAA is investigating, and given their track record of being anything but prompt with these situations, it could be a while before a ruling is made.

The loss of Southerland from the lineup, for however long this lasts (which could be season ending), is no doubt a negative for the Orange.  

This may not sound logical, but while the Orange are one of the best scoring teams in the nation (79.0 PPG which is 16th best in the country) they aren’t really a great scoring team. They force turnovers on 25.6% of their opponent’s possessions (10th best in the country) which leads to a plethora of easy points in transition. However, as a team they only shoot 45.6% from the floor (74th in the country) and 31.9% from three (238^th in the country).

Southerland, who hasn’t started a game all season but is the first man off the bench usually around the first media timeout mark, averages 26.3 minutes per game (fourth most on the team) and has played 61.8% of all available minutes this season. When in the game he is essentially noted as the team’s most lethal shooter, shooting 49.4% from the field and 37.5% from three, averaging 13.6 points per game, while taking 25.6% of the team’s shots when on the floor.

And standing at 6-foot-8, he is incredibly difficult to guard on the outside for most teams and he is absolutely deadly taking drop passes for Michael Carter-Williams in transition and burying threes.

But standing that tall also makes him an ideal fit in the 2-3 zone as he locks down the wings and corners.

The Orange are now pressed with the task to replace both his offensive production and defensive presence. Since obviously those usage minutes, shots and points won’t just go away, there will have to be a player or two that steps up.

It is clear that the beneficiaries of Southerland’s situation will be Jerami Grant and Trevor Cooney. Grant a freshman and Cooney a red-shirt freshman average 12.2 and 13.6 minutes, and 4.4 and 4.9 points per game respectively.

Ideally, Syracuse would want to mold these two into one player, which was exactly what Southerland was – being a sharpshooter from the outside which is all that Cooney is really supposed to be good at, in conjunction with being tall and instinctive enough to play down low a little bit along with fitting ideally into the zone like Grant does.

When Southerland was on the floor, Syracuse had an average plus/minus of +13.8 per game. That is fifth best on the team and 12^th best in the Big East Conference.

You don’t need me to tell you that the Orange are clearly losing significant production with Southerland out of the lineup. However, Syracuse is a very good team with a deep bench. Unfortunately for the first 15 games Southerland was far and away the best player off the bench which was indicative of why he was essentially getting starter minutes night in and night out. Now they will need one or two guys to step up in his place. This will be good enough on most nights, but I don’t believe a road game at Louisville that looms tomorrow is going to be a welcoming experience for them.

Last year’s loss of Fab Melo right before the NCAA Tournament was essentially a season-ending blow to the team.  They made it to the Elite 8, but that team was much better than that with Fab in the lineup.  The loss of Southerland isn’t on the same level, but it is a blow to the team’s talent level and depth.  Syracuse faithful and college basketball fans alike are just hoping that this issue is resolved at some point this season, but unfortunately for Orange fans - losing a key player in some shape or form on a good team is not uncommon in recent history.  

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac