What the Orange Lose while James Southerland is Investigated by the NCAA

Southerland in street clothes awaiting his verdict

As we all know, Syracuse senior, James Southerland, was ruled ineligible prior to their home game versus Villanova this past Saturday. The Orange went on to win that game 72-61 and extend their home winning streak to 34 (the longest current streak in college basketball), but that was after another mediocre first half – which is something of a common theme for the Orange this year.

Coach Boeheim has said that Southerland’s situation is "troubling", but that it is something that "could be resolved." That doesn’t sound very encouraging.

And the most recent rumors regarding the specifics behind his situation are that he got help from a tutor on a term paper or that the tutor actually wrote a term paper for him.  This is apparently what the NCAA is investigating, and given their track record of being anything but prompt with these situations, it could be a while before a ruling is made.

The loss of Southerland from the lineup, for however long this lasts (which could be season ending), is no doubt a negative for the Orange.  

This may not sound logical, but while the Orange are one of the best scoring teams in the nation (79.0 PPG which is 16th best in the country) they aren’t really a great scoring team. They force turnovers on 25.6% of their opponent’s possessions (10th best in the country) which leads to a plethora of easy points in transition. However, as a team they only shoot 45.6% from the floor (74th in the country) and 31.9% from three (238^th in the country).

Southerland, who hasn’t started a game all season but is the first man off the bench usually around the first media timeout mark, averages 26.3 minutes per game (fourth most on the team) and has played 61.8% of all available minutes this season. When in the game he is essentially noted as the team’s most lethal shooter, shooting 49.4% from the field and 37.5% from three, averaging 13.6 points per game, while taking 25.6% of the team’s shots when on the floor.

And standing at 6-foot-8, he is incredibly difficult to guard on the outside for most teams and he is absolutely deadly taking drop passes for Michael Carter-Williams in transition and burying threes.

But standing that tall also makes him an ideal fit in the 2-3 zone as he locks down the wings and corners.

The Orange are now pressed with the task to replace both his offensive production and defensive presence. Since obviously those usage minutes, shots and points won’t just go away, there will have to be a player or two that steps up.

It is clear that the beneficiaries of Southerland’s situation will be Jerami Grant and Trevor Cooney. Grant a freshman and Cooney a red-shirt freshman average 12.2 and 13.6 minutes, and 4.4 and 4.9 points per game respectively.

Ideally, Syracuse would want to mold these two into one player, which was exactly what Southerland was – being a sharpshooter from the outside which is all that Cooney is really supposed to be good at, in conjunction with being tall and instinctive enough to play down low a little bit along with fitting ideally into the zone like Grant does.

When Southerland was on the floor, Syracuse had an average plus/minus of +13.8 per game. That is fifth best on the team and 12^th best in the Big East Conference.

You don’t need me to tell you that the Orange are clearly losing significant production with Southerland out of the lineup. However, Syracuse is a very good team with a deep bench. Unfortunately for the first 15 games Southerland was far and away the best player off the bench which was indicative of why he was essentially getting starter minutes night in and night out. Now they will need one or two guys to step up in his place. This will be good enough on most nights, but I don’t believe a road game at Louisville that looms tomorrow is going to be a welcoming experience for them.

Last year’s loss of Fab Melo right before the NCAA Tournament was essentially a season-ending blow to the team.  They made it to the Elite 8, but that team was much better than that with Fab in the lineup.  The loss of Southerland isn’t on the same level, but it is a blow to the team’s talent level and depth.  Syracuse faithful and college basketball fans alike are just hoping that this issue is resolved at some point this season, but unfortunately for Orange fans - losing a key player in some shape or form on a good team is not uncommon in recent history.  

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Big East Preview: #2 Syracuse Orange

Previewing all 15 teams from #15 to #1

By:  Shane McCarthy

Even after losing four significant contributors from last year’s squad, the Orange enter the 2012-13 campaign in the preseason top 10.  Needless to say, there is a bit of optimism surrounding this year’s team.  And rightfully so - they have veteran starters, skilled [young] role players from last year primed to step up, and another talented recruiting class.  The hype is warranted for their last year in the Big East, now it’s about delivering.

Who’s Back:

C.J. Fair –F– Junior – 26.4 Min, 8.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 0.9 apg

Brandon Triche –G– Junior – 22.5 Min, 9.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.6 apg

James Southerland –F– Senior – 16 Min, 6.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.4 apg

Baye Keita –F– Junior – 12.3 Min, 2.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 0.1 apg

Rakeem Christmas –F– Soph – 11.5 Min, 2.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 0.2 apg

Michael Carter-Williams –G– Soph – 10.3 Min, 2.7 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 2.1 apg

Trevor Cooney –G– Redshirt Freshman 

Incoming Recruits:

DaJuan Coleman - [Center] – 6 foot 9, 275

ESPN’s 14^th ranked player and 6^th ranked Center

Rivals.com’s 26^th ranked player and 5^th ranked Center

McDonald’s All-American

Jerami Grant – [Power Forward] – 6 foot 7, 190

ESPN’s 37^th ranked player and 11^th ranked Power Forward

Rivals.com’s 64^th ranked player and 15^th ranked Power Forward

Who’s Out:  Kris Joseph, Scoop Jardine, Dion Waiters, Fab Melo

Overview:

I’m still disappointed that we didn’t get a Kentucky vs. Syracuse national championship last year.  Granted it would have only been a good game if Fab Melo was playing, but he is also the reason they didn’t get that far.  Damn you Fab.  That would have been a treat, as the Orange were probably the only team in the country that could actually match up with the Wildcats.

This year’s team is deep, a nine man rotation deep - very similar to last year.  That gives Boeheim the flexibility to tinker with combinations to exploit opponents and keep his guys fresh.

Brandon Triche, who has remarkably started every game of his Syracuse career, returns for his senior year.  Triche will continue to be the steady and solid player that he has been throughout his career.

C.J. Fair, James Southerland and Baye Keita also return to provide upperclassmen experience.  Fair will start and get the most playing time of the three as he has molded into a solid forward/wing player.  He isn’t the most dominating low-post player, but he picks his spots and is an excellent shooter.  Southerland is primarily a three point threat while Keita will provide front court depth.

Joining Fair in the front court will be Rakeem Christmas and freshman DaJuan Coleman.  Neither are the true center that Fab Melo was nor will they be the defensive force that he morphed into last year (earning him Big East Defensive Player of the Year recognition), but both are better all-around players than he was.  The combination of Christmas, Coleman and Fair will wear down opposing front courts and keep penetrators at bay.

Most of the buzz entering this year is over Michael Carter-Williams, and rightfully so.  MCW didn’t find the court much as a freshman, but will now take over the driver’s seat and assume the starting point guard role.  There isn’t a thing I can say about him that hasn’t been discussed all summer long: he’s long and fits into the 2-3 zone perfectly, has incredible handles, great vision, deep range, lightning quick slashing ability and can throw it down.  Pretty much – he will be the most exciting player on the court no matter who the Orange are playing.  And it seems plausible that the Orange will go as far as he takes them.

The rotation will be rounded out by Trevor Cooney, a redshirt freshman, and Jerami Grant, an incoming freshman. Cooney has been labeled as a sharpshooter, but Boeheim insists he is more than that.  While Grant is a tall, lanky forward who will factor in the front court/wing rotation.  Both these guys will likely be counted on to be more than role players, and will see extended minutes each game.

For their last year in the Big East, Boeheim has once again reloaded this team to compete for a championship.  On paper, this team looks to be very talented, Final Four worthy talented.  But of course there will be questions as this team will have a very different look from last year and will be counting on a number of young guys to contribute.  They likely won’t repeat their 17-1 conference mark from last season, but another big year looks to be on the horizon for the Orange.

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Big East Teams' NCAA Tournament Preview

Has Fab Melo cost the Orange a trip to the Final Four?

By Shane McCarthy on March 13, 2012

South Florida Bulls – 12 seed and playing in the first four game

Ceiling:  Win 2 games (1 being the play-in game) – Given how the Bulls like to muck up the flow of the game by playing slow and heavy, they can cause any opponent to get frustrated and unable to find a rhythm.    Both Cal and Temple depend on solid outside shooting to win games, so they may not be particularly fond of South Florida’s style of play.

Floor:  Lose first game – There is no question that the Bulls are physical and play solid defense, but they have had trouble scoring all year.  Cal underachieved most of the season, but they seem to be figuring it out lately and possibly making it difficult for South Florida to keep up on the scoreboard. 

West Virginia Mountaineers – 10 seed

Ceiling:  Elite 8 – Kevin Jones is one of the best players in the country, averaging a double-double, and will be a match-up problem for everyone they play.  If Deniz Kilicli and Truck Bryant can play at a high level there is no reason why they can’t make a run to the Elite 8.  I actually think they match-up well with Ohio St. and can upset them.  Also, their first round game is being played less than two hours from campus, making it a virtual home game for them while Gonzaga has to travel all the way across the country.

Floor:  Lose first game – Besides from Kevin Jones, Gonzaga is a more talented team than the Mountaineers.  West Virginia is solid on the offensive boards, but they play suspect defense and they have had trouble closing games in the last month or two.   

Connecticut Huskies – 9 seed

Ceiling:  Win 1 game – Royce White of Iowa St. is a tough match-up for any team in the country, given his size and versatility.  But beyond him, UConn is the much more talented team with loads of experience on the court.  It’s unfortunate that the Huskies drew the 8/9 game in Kentucky’s region, because I think they could have held their own against any other team in the tournament.  Could they beat Kentucky?  For sure, but they have lacked any leadership or enthusiasm all season and I don’t think they’ll suddenly discover it against the best team in the country.  If it was against anyone else, I would have given them a shot to make a deep run.

Floor:  Lose first game – The Huskies have been so volatile (they lost to Providence two weeks ago) that no one would be surprised if they got absolutely smoked by Iowa St. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish – 7 seed

Ceiling:  Win 1 game - The Irish play sound fundamental basketball and when they are hitting their shots they are difficult to beat.  But the problem is – they have not been making shots for about a month now, while Xavier has been playing well.  If Notre Dame finds their touch, they will beat Xavier, but they won’t be able to keep up with Duke in the game thereafter. 

Floor:  Lose first game – As was just stated, given their slow pace of play and lack of inside presence, it is a necessity for them to shoot well.  Xavier has struggled to play up to their talent level since the brawl they were in back in November, but they have been playing better and are the more talented team compared to the Irish.

Cincinnati Bearcats – 6 seed

Ceiling:  Final Four – The Bearcats have looked very good in the last month, even though they laid a dud in the Big East Championship game.  As long as they run their offense through Yancy Gates in the low post, they will be a tough out.  By focusing on Gates, it enables the rest of the team to get open shots and lanes to the basket.  This team just beat Syracuse, the #1 seed in their region, so I think they can handle other obstacles.

Floor:  Win 1 game – I believe Cincinnati will make quick work of Texas in the first round as the Longhorns are an average team across the board.  But a possible second round match-up with Florida St. could prove troublesome.  Not only are the Seminoles an excellent defensive team, but they are shooting the ball extremely well as of late, as displayed last week in which they beat both Duke and North Carolina.   

Louisville Cardinals – 4 seed

Ceiling:  Sweet Sixteen – Louisville has the coach (Rick Pitino) and the point guard (Peyton Siva) that is needed to enjoy success this time of the year; which was on display last week on their run to a Big East Championship.  The Cardinals will be looking to ride that momentum for a few more weeks.

Floor:  Lose first game – Louisville has struggled shooting the ball all year, and besides Marquette in the Big East Tournament, the Cardinals have not had a notable win in about two months.  Davidson is not flashy, but they were good enough to beat Kansas this year.  And let’s not forget Louisville’s early round struggles in recent years. 

Georgetown Hoyas – 3 seed

Ceiling:  Elite Eight – It is no secret that Belmont over Georgetown in the first round has become a pretty popular upset pick.  It’s surely possible, but I have been of the belief that Georgetown will significantly benefit by getting out of the Big East.  Their only non-conference loss was to Kansas, and their defense has vastly improved over the course of the season.  They will no doubt be tested as they are in a tough region, but a meeting with North Carolina would not surprise me. 

Floor:  Lose first game – Not only can Belmont score, but they may have the ideal style of play to handle Georgetown’s effective defense.  They will look to speed up the Hoyas and make them uncomfortable. 

Marquette Golden Eagles – 3 seed

Ceiling:  Final Four – Marquette plays extremely hard on both ends of the court and thrive in transition.  As long as Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom stay out of foul trouble, this team can keep up with anyone.  They have lost two of three, but I believe their first two match-ups are favorable draws before they will have a layoff to prepare for Missouri.  Marquette vs. Missouri would be one of the most entertaining games of the tournament, and I like the fact that the Golden Eagles would be the more physical team. 

Floor:  Sweet Sixteen – I don’t believe there is a match-up that Marquette can’t adjust to, but Missouri’s four guard system may prove to be too much to handle for the Golden Eagles, especially if Mizzou is hitting their 3’s. 

Syracuse Orange – 1 seed

Ceiling:  Final Four – First off, if you are an Orange fan, you have to be absolutely livid at Fab Melo for acting so selfishly throughout the course of the season.  As a student/athlete, it is your responsibility to attend class and complete whatever work/tests that are asked of you.  I was never a D-1 athlete during my tenure in college, but it is my understanding that it is not very hard to attend class/study sessions a few times a month and maintain a gaudy 1.8 GPA.  I understand that he has NBA aspirations, but show your respect/loyalty/commitment to the team you’re currently on.

 Secondly, this team is still talented enough and is in a favorable region to make a Final Four run.  Dion Waiters and Kris Joseph will probably be the best two players on the floor in their first three games.  And speaking of Waiters, it seems obvious that he will be leaving college early to head to the NBA after this year.  If that is the case, I can see him blowing up and singlehandedly taking the Orange to New Orleans for the benefit of his draft position. 

Floor:  Win 1 game – A #16 seed has never beaten a #1 seed and it is not going to happen in this game.  However, if Syracuse lacks the motivation and plays flat against Kansas St. in the second round, they could be beat.  Syracuse struggles in the rebounding department, while Kansas St. excels in it.  Even though Syracuse’s talent should prevail, it could be an ugly game that the Wildcats sneak away with.  

Twitter --> @shane_t_mac

Fab is Back

With Fab Melo in the lineup - Syracuse is a complete team

By Shane McCarthy on February 6, 2012

The Orange played three games without Fab Melo in the lineup (academic reasons), went 2-1 and saw their 20 game win streak snapped, and even in their two wins they looked like a different team.  They looked like a team that was timid and lacking confidence.

Now it's not that Melo lights it up on the stat sheet - he averages 7.5 points per game and 5.5 rebounds per game.  Syracuse as a team averages 78.1 points per game and 36 rebounds per game, making Fab's contribution 9.5% and 15% respectively.

Fab lights it up on the floor by just BEING on the floor.  The Orange are a totally different team when he is banging down in the low post and centering the swarming 2-3 zone.  When he was away for those three games all three opponents time and again attacked down low.  Luke Harangody, I mean Jack Cooley (you can't convince me they aren't somehow related), of Notre Dame went for 17 points and 16 boards!  He's a good player, but he doesn't do that with Fab in the game.

When Fab is in the game opponents have trouble dumping it down low as he controls that zone.  He has vastly improved his footwork (will give most of that credit to Weight Watchers) which has allowed him to average 3.0 blocks per game - and the team averaging 7.8 blocks per game with him in uniform (3rd in NCAA).  This forces opponents to keep the ball on the outside and take long-range shots, which is exactly what this fast and athletic 2-3 zone wants.

On the offensive end he allows the offense to run more smoothly.  Opponents may not have to commit a double team to him, but you definitely have to account for him at all times.  This allows the crafty guards  Scoop Jardine, Brandon Triche and Dion Waiters to dribble drive and force extra defenders to commit to them.  Then kicking it out to a wide-open Kris Joseph, James Southerland or the other guards just mentioned for an open look or throw a lob up to Melo for an easy dunk.  It doesn't hurt that Melo has a solid stroke from the line as well.

Melo has only been back for one game, and that was a blowout win over St. John's at Madison Square Garden which is more of a home game for Syracuse than it is for St. John's.  St. John's is undersized, inexperience and lacks depth, so this wasn't much of a test for the Orange.  But this team played with a different swagger and confidence compared to the previous three games.  Without Fab it seemed they lacked confidence which translated into poor shooting performances and a plethora of turnovers.  With him they are a different team, a team that is deep, talented and explosive.  Fab Melo completes the 2011-2012 Syracuse Orange.

@shane_t_mac