Previewing the Last Big East Tournament as We Know It

The Big East Tournament will kick off tomorrow and you can probably find hundreds of articles written in the past few days exclaiming that this will be the final Big East Tournament as we know it. And they will all be right. The conference is set to undergo a drastic makeover next year and there won’t be a Big East Tournament that goes by in the future without at least one reference to the power house this conference once was – even if the newly constructed conference becomes just as great one day.

While Connecticut, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s, Seton Hall and Syracuse were the founding members in 1979 that have stuck it out this long, it took multiple instances of additions and subtractions to build it up to where it is today. The most recent influx of teams took place in 2005 when Cincinnati, DePaul, Louisville, Marquette and South Florida joined to make it the beast that it became. The Big East was always regarded as one of the better basketball conferences in the nation throughout the 80s, 90s and early 2000s, but it really became regarded as an all-time great in 2011 when the Big East sent a record 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament – with UConn capping the year off with a national championship. 

Conference realignment has always been a part of collegiate athletics and it will never go away. Who knows, these 15 teams could end up together in a super conference someday down the road.

But instead of crying over the past or worrying about the future, let’s just enjoy the 2013 Big East Tournament over the next five days like we’ve done each and every time over the years.

Here is a preview on what is to come and my predicted bracket…

The Favorites:

Louisville – The Cardinals haven’t lost in over a month as they are in the midst of a 7-game winning streak and don’t have a bad loss on their resume all season. They were the unanimous pick to win the conference and ended up in a three-way share of it, but given the pieces on this team and the run these same guys made last year, I’m going to label them as the favorite.

Georgetown – The Hoyas made a statement on Saturday by destroying Syracuse in the two schools final regular season meeting as conference rivals, to signal to the rest of the Big East that they are for real. A winner of their last 12 of 13 games, and with a player as hot as Otto Porter, this team clearly knows how to emerge victorious.

Under the Radar Team:

Pittsburgh – I know the Panthers earned a double-bye, but this team has gotten very little publicity all season. The advanced metrics are big believers in Pitt, but they have a tendency to go through prolonged scoring droughts. But given that they will likely see Syracuse followed by Georgetown (two teams also known for troubles on the offensive end) before reaching the finals, you have to like their chances. At least I do, anyway.

Dark Horse Teams:

None - I know the Big East has become known for teams making a run to the championship without the luxury of a double-bye, but I don’t think that will be the case this year. I know the obvious candidate here would be Syracuse, but the Orange’s offense has been so consistently awful over the past month that it seems impossible to fix in such short notice. Notre Dame hasn’t impressed me at all on the road, and unfortunately the winner of the St. John’s vs. Villanova game on Wednesday has to see a well rest Louisville the next day.  Marquette, who shared the Big East regular season crown with Louisville and Georgetown and who also earned a double-bye, is another team that I find difficult to get excited about away from their home court.  And the four teams that play on Tuesday night – Rutgers, Seton Hall, South Florida and DePaul – are all atrocious and have absolutely no shot.

Players to Watch:

Otto Porter – He is going to be the unanimous selection for Big East Player of the Year, and rightfully so -  he can take over a game and put the entire team on his back en route to a victory.  He may be the best stretch four in the country and look for him to impose his will on opponents as needed.

Peyton Siva – While his season was rather disappointing given that he was selected as the pre-season player of the year, he is still the floor general of the Cardinals. Look for the senior point guard to pick up his play as it matters most and reemerge as one of the better distributing point guards in the country.  He just needs to be sure to not get into foul trouble – an area he struggled with throughout the season.

Steven Adams – The freshman big might be the only player in the Big East that can match up with Gorgui Dieng and not be outmatched from a physical standpoint. However, Adams isn’t as skilled or experienced, but if he can stay on the floor his presence alone could be effective enough for the Panthers to make a run at it.

Jack Cooley – If you could somehow quantify hardest working player in the conference, Cooley is probably it. There is no question that he is one of if not the best rebounder in the Big East, but he will need to step it up defensively if the Irish are to have a chance.  Offense isn’t the problem for the Irish, it’s their defense.  Look for Cooley to turn it up a notch and own the paint. 

My Bracket Prediction:

Let me know who you guys think will win and why.

Enjoy

Twitter:  @ShaneInBigEast

Third Round Games In Two Sentences Each

By Shane McCarthy on March 8, 2012

#9 Connecticut vs. #1 Syracuse

This was the third time these two teams played this season and it was the third time UConn looked as good as Syracuse for long periods of the game.  Powered by Dion Waiters and James Southerland with some supporting help from Shabazz Napier, the Orange were able to grind out the victory.

Final Score:  Syracuse 58 Connecticut 55

#5 Georgetown vs. #4 Cincinnati

For two teams that were very similar on many metrics entering the game, it was only fitting that it took double overtime to decide it.  Yancy Gates went off for 23 points and powered the Bearcats past the Hoyas.

Final Score:  Cincinnati 72 Georgetown 70 2OT

#7 Louisville vs. #2 Marquette

It was the defensive performance by the Louisville Cardinals that paved the way for their relatively easy victory over Marquette.  Marquette, who did not shoot well all night, was never able to get it going and did not have an answer for Peyton Siva at all.

Final Score:  Louisville 84 Marquette 71

#6 South Florida vs. #3 Notre Dame

South Florida played their style of basketball to perfection, slow and ugly, and they had the game in hand until they choked it away in the final moments.  Bad fouls, poor turnovers, missed foul shots and shot clock violations all contributed to their demise, and now they’ll be sweating it out till Sunday.    

Final Score:  Notre Dame 57 South Florida 53 OT

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The South Florida Bulls Right Now

By Shane McCarthy on March 7, 2012


Resume:


RPI:  44
SOS:  27
BPI:   59
Kenpom:  67
Sagarin:  69
LRMC:  73
Solid wins (RPI):  @Louisville(28), Seton Hall(54), Cincinnati(68)
Bad losses (RPI):  neutral court vs. Penn St.(157), @Auburn(138)
Notable tidbits:  0-5 vs. RPI top 25 teams, nine of their 12 Big East wins were against teams with 12 or more losses, 7-3 in their last six games and have held opponents to under 60 points in nine straight.


No matter what your feelings are for the plethora of metrics out there, they are here to stay and they all say the same thing about the South Florida Bulls - they are a mediocre team that is floating on the bubble.

Finishing 12-6 in the Big East seems impressive, until of course you look more closely.  They played Pittsburgh, Villanova and Providence each twice, who went a combined 14-40 in the conference.  Now, this is by no means the fault of South Florida, as they did not make the schedule nor is it their fault that Nova and Pitt had exceptionally poor years compared to their recent history.  But the hypothetical fact of the matter is... if Nova and Pitt have normal Nova and Pitt seasons, USF probably does not go 4-0 against them.  But, in the end, these victories do not count as 'good' wins anyway.

The Big East has had a down year relative to its history that South Florida to their credit was able to benefit from, but what about their non-conference slate of games.  Is South Florida more accomplished outside the conference compared to say, Seton Hall?  Does not look like it.  USF's best non-conference win is against Cleveland St. and that's about it; while Seton Hall beat VCU, St. Joseph's and Dayton.

It is not that USF is a bad team, because they have improved as the year has gone on, especially on the defensive end.  They take pride in themselves being disciplined, playing physical, and being the tougher team on the court.  Their slow paced offense may not be very efficient, but it actually helps them on defense.  Opponents become frustrated after devoting their attention to 35 seconds of defense which can lead to out of control, impatient possessions on the offensive end.  In a way, they force their opponents to play the same slow and ugly style that they are comfortable with.

Tomorrow the Bulls will get Notre Dame in the third round of the Big East Tournament.  In their only meeting this year they lost 60-49 at Notre Dame two months ago.  The Fighting Irish play this same slow-paced tempo that USF runs, but they are a much better shooting team than USF and they do not turn the ball over nearly as much.

In the end, I will be rooting for South Florida because I want them to make the NCAA Tournament and I actually do think they can beat Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish have not shot the ball particularly well of late and they do not have the big bodies down low to match the toughness of the Bulls.  This could end up being a very ugly game with bricks galore being chucked around.  For South Florida, this will be their biggest game of the season because it is about 'who did you play and who did you beat' and now is the time for USF to prove that they can beat someone.  Beating Notre Dame tomorrow night would be their second best win of the year.

Twitter --> @shane_t_mac

Breaking Down Seton Hall vs. Providence

The Pirates sailed past Providence in Round 1

By Shane McCarthy on March 6, 2012

Let's breakdown Seton Hall vs. Providence into ten four-minute segments and see what went down.

1st Half

20 Minute Mark:

It is tough to play much worse to start the game than these two teams managed to do in the first four minutes.  The sloppy play was filled with moving screens, passes into teammates' backs, and two travelling violations before a point was even scored.  It took 2 minutes and 37 seconds before Providence broke the scoreless drought and they actually prevented Seton Hall from scoring in the first four minutes of the game.  Score: 6-0 Providence.  At this points, the Friars were on pace to win the game 48-0.

16 Minute Mark:

Providence continued to use their speed to push the pace of the game to go up 9-0.  At this point, Seton Hall had not even come close to scoring.  But that did not last as Fuquan Edwin drained a three for the Pirate's first points five minutes into the game.  This got the ball rolling as they hit two more three pointers (Brandon Mobley and Aaron Cosby) and quickly got the Pirates back in the game.  Score: 11-11 Tie

12 Minute Mark:
What once looked like a shut-out in the making, eventually began to spiral out of control for Providence.  After the Pirates converted an old-school three point play, the Friars put together this dandy of a possession:  air-ball, but the Friars come up with it under the basket, the put-back hits the bottom edge of the backboard and comes back down in the shooters face, he then kicks it out, but only for that player to immediately travel with the ball.  Not exactly a high quality possession.  Providence's next possession ended with another air-ball and the one after that ended with another travelling violation.  This entire sequence seemed to deject the Friars as they practically quit on defense and watched Seton Hall stay hot with all the open looks they were getting.  Score:  21-14 Seton Hall


8 Minute Mark:
At this point the Friars were approximately 0 of a trillion from three, and it actually looked like they were attempting to bank their long jumpers in.  That did not work.  In the meantime, Jordan Theodore and Mobley gave them a shooting lesson at the other end.  Score:  30-16 Seton Hall


4 Minute Mark:
The law of averages eventually prevails as Providence finally makes a three, ending a stretch in which they missed 14 of 15 shots from the floor.  Score:  36-23 Seton Hall

Halftime

2nd Half

20 Minute Mark:

The Friars seemed to have made the necessary adjustments that needed to be made as they came out of halftime running actual offensive sets, moving the ball, getting open looks at the basket, and actually causing problems for the defense.  The two teams traded multiple baskets, before LaDontae Henton of Providence picked up three fouls in about a minute.  This managed to suck the wind out of the sails for the Friars and the Pirates pounced on the opportunity.  This stretch was capped off by a pick-n-roll to perfection between Theodore and Herb Pope that resulted in a three point play.  Score:  47-30 Seton Hall

16 Minute Mark:

The sloppy play by Providence endures, and Theodore continues to carve up the Friars.  He got his 10th and 11th assists on an alley-oop to Pope and then a behind the back pass in the lane to Pope for a bucket.  To end this segment of the game, Seton Hall fouled Bryce Cotton attempting a three pointer which resulted in him converting all three free throws.  Score:  56-35 Seton Hall

12 Minute Mark:

Jordan Theodore, a senior who has never been to the NCAA Tournament, continues to play desperate and hungry as you would expect.  He facilitates the offense, single-handedly breaks the press, and even manages to draw a charging violation with a beautiful flop.  You can tell that he wants to absolutely pummel the Friars to eliminate the bubble talk.  Score:  62-38 Seton Hall

8 Minute Mark:

At this point, the game was so out of hand that they decided to interview Rick Pitino with the camera on him while the game was going on.  Coach Pitino confirms that Seton Hall should be off the bubble with this win and he will be ready to put a hit on them tomorrow.  Score:  74-42 Seton Hall

4 Minute Mark:

With about two minutes remaining in the game, Seton Hall decided to put in their best bench-warmer, the Hammer, Peter Dill.  Peter has logged seven minutes on the season and has two total points.  But Peter does have a role on this team, and does he ever contribute.  Many have probably seen this, but it is worth another look...

Final Score:  79-47 Seton Hall

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Previewing the Big East Tournament

By Shane McCarthy on March 5, 2012

In prime position to benefit the most:  South Florida

Neither Rutgers nor Villanova will be an easy out for USF, but if they can get by that second round game, they will get a Notre Dame team that has been a bit off lately.  When looking at possible 'good' wins that would boost their at-large hopes for the NCAA Tournament, Notre Dame seems the most feasible right now. 

Opportunity to prove their worth:  UConn, Seton Hall

Will UConn play like a rat trapped in a corner or will they quit the first time they find themselves down four at halftime?  UConn and West Virginia might already be safe for an at-large bid, but when they meet in the second round - both should play that game like they are far from it.  And if UConn does make it to the quarters, will they be able to take down Syracuse?  In each of their meetings this year the games were very close or tied with a few minutes left, but UConn could not find a way to prevail in either.  You would think that would build confidence and enthusiasm, but this team has not shown either all season long.  However, I want to remain optimistic and believe talent can prevail.  Maybe Coach Calhoun can be the leader they need from the bench, since no one in uniform has yet to step up. 

Seton Hall let a very good season turn into a train wreck with losses to Rutgers and DePaul to finish the season resulting in a missed opportunity for a first round bye.  This leads me to believe that Providence will be no cake-walk for them.  But if they can get out of the opening round, they will get a Louisville team that has been shooting the ball very poorly. 

Toughest draw with most to lose:  Cincinnati

Cincinnati finished strong by beating Marquette and Villanova, but their overall resume is very odd to say the least.  They lack a number of 'good' wins to offset their 'terrible' losses to Presbyterian and Marshall at home in the beginning of the year, but they have played well enough in the BE to earn a double bye.  The Bearcats will most likely see Georgetown in the quarterfinals, a tough matchup for sure. 

Easiest draw:  Marquette

Led by Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette has emerged as one of the best teams in the country.  Is there a team that can stop them from getting to the championship game?  Seems doubtful.  

Teams with nothing to lose and capable of playing spoiler:  Villanova, St. John's, Providence, Pittsburgh

Villanova – Maalik Wayns and the Wildcats are more than capable of getting hot and winning multiple games, and they are in the bracket to make it happen.

St. John’s – The fact that the BE Tournament is a home game for the Red Storm is enough to give them some sort of advantage.  Combine that with the talent of this team and the fact that they don’t know any better, and you have a team that could make a run.

Providence – The Friars were good enough to beat UConn last week and there is no reason why they can’t totally destroy Seton Hall’s season in the first round. 

Pittsburgh – Tray Woodall and Ashton Gibbs are good enough on their own to win a few games for the Panthers.  At the very least, their first round game with St. John’s should be entertaining. 

Favorites:  Syracuse, Marquette

The regular season conference champions, Syracuse Orange, lost one game all year and that was without Fab Melo, Defensive Player of the Year in the conference.  This team just ‘knows’ how to win, making them one of the best teams in the country.

Marquette’s relentless attack makes them a threat to anyone, and this team has gotten a lot better since they saw Syracuse two months ago. 

Championship game to most look forward to:  Syracuse vs. Marquette, Syracuse vs. Notre Dame

Syracuse vs. Marquette would be the most exciting for sure.  But, watching Notre Dame prove that their win over the Orange was no fluke, would be equally entertaining.  

Twitter -->  @shane_t_mac