Taking a Look at The Russdiculous End to the Notre Dame vs. Louisville Game

By now, if you didn’t watch the game last night, you’ve all seen the highlights of the epic five-overtime thriller between Notre Dame and Louisville.  We all know that Jerian Grant scored 12 points in the final 45 seconds, that Garrick Sherman scored 17 points without getting a minute of playing time in regulation, and that Louisville just couldn’t close.  But let’s take a look at the final moments of regulation and each of the overtimes, because Russ Smith may have broken a record for most game-winners missed in a single game.  Seriously.  If such a record existed, it was surely broken last night.

End of Regulation:

Peyton Siva dribbles to the top of the key, looks to have a wide open jumper if he wants to take it, but decides to dump it down to Gorgui Dieng in the low-post with three guys around him, and can’t handle it.  No shot is attempted.

End of 1^st Overtime:

Russ Smith slowly dribbles the ball up the court, comes to a complete stop at half court with roughly five seconds remaining, and Russ, seemingly unaware that the clock is running, is forced to jack a 3 from about 10 feet beyond the 3-point line, and it clanks off the glass and rims out.

End of 2^nd Overtime:

This time Russ Smith slowly dribbles past half court, but has enough time so that he can attempt a drive.  He opts to go left and his erratic, running extended layup from high off the glass doesn’t even hit the rim.  Chane Behanan gets a chance with the put back, but it was highly contested and rushed, and also didn’t get any rim.

 

End of 3^rd Overtime:

Louisville is forced to go the length of the court after inbounding it from under their own basket in less than four seconds.  Obviously they inbound to Russ, he runs and dribbles as fast as he can, and he attempts a running jumper from approximately the 3-point line.  The attempt didn’t go and it wouldn’t have mattered because the ball was still in his hand when the buzzer sounded. 

End of 4^th Overtime:

The Cardinals once again have to go the length of the court upon inbounding it from the opposite end, but this time they have just over six seconds to work with.  Again they inbound the ball to Smith, he scampers down the floor only to have it knocked away at the 3-point line, but he is able to regain control just in time to jack a fade-away five feet beyond the arc that ends up being an airball. 

End of 5^th Overtime:

This time the circumstances are different.  Instead of the game being tied like the previous instances, Louisville is now down three with under 10 seconds to play.  But like the four previous overtime periods the ball was in Russ Smith’s hands last.  On this occasion he dribbles to the top left of the arc, sets himself right in front of Coach Pitino (hoping for him to will it in I presume), but the deep three clanks off the iron.  The Irish win.

Summary:

The Louisville Cardinals had the final shot at the end of regulation and every overtime period, opted to not use an available timeout in every instance, didn’t get a shot off once, and Russ Smith had the ball in his hands for the final possession in all five overtimes and didn’t make a single shot.  I have a feeling that not only will the Cards use a timeout in these situations in the future, but they will be dedicating large portions of their practice sessions to these situations over the next month.  And maybe next time they will actually have some sort of set play to run rather than it just being a chaotic Russdiculous situation. 

Twitter:  @soupTOOnuts

Notre Dame has One Glaring Defensive Issue, Again

When it comes to running an efficient offense Notre Dame is not only one of the best, but one of the most consistent teams in the nation year after year.

Going as far back as KenPom’s tempo-free history has data for – which is 2003 – the Irish have only once had their offense ranked outside the top-50, which was 51^st in 2005. They have finished in the top-10 in five seasons over that span and are currently 11^th this year. Their offensive prowess is predicated on excellent 3-point shooting (finishing in the top 30 in 3-point percentage in eight of 11 seasons) along with being one of the best teams in the country at protecting the ball. Their turnover percentage has never been worse than 29^th.

But for how good Notre Dame is at protecting the ball, they are equally and oppositely terrible at taking it away from their opponents.

Now the Irish aren’t a terrible defensive team. Their average rank over the past 11 seasons is 90^th, but that isn’t good enough in the Big East as they are usually at or near the bottom in the conference.

And the finger can be pointed directly at their ability - or lack thereof - to force turnovers.  The Irish are absolutely atrocious at turning their opponent over. Take a look at the chart below. They have consistently ranked outside the top-300 in the country at forcing turnovers. And only once have they cracked the top-200, which is a complete anomaly because all 10 other seasons have been over 300.

The Irish do compensate for this by not fouling often (at least fouls that result in their opponent going to the free throw line, anyway) and they are a respectable rebounding team year after year. But when you run that slow ‘burn’ offense without generating turnovers to create extra possessions, you are consistently playing with fire and will likely be in many more close games than you would like, especially against upper echelon opponents or in hostile environments. Just take a look at what the Irish have done in the NCAA Tournament over the past 10 seasons…

2012: Lost their first game as a 7 seed

2011: Won one game as a 2 seed

2010: Lost their first game as a 6 seed

2008: Won one game as a 5 seed

2007: Lost their first game as a 6 seed

2003: Won two games as a 5 seed

Notre Dame has made the tournament as an at-large bid in six of the last 10 seasons and has never been worse than a seven seed. But only once – 10 years ago – have they made it out of the first weekend, while succumbing to one-and-done on three occasions.

One would think that given the fact that Notre Dame is more or less consistently ranked in the top-25 throughout the season that they would have better fortunes in the tournament every now and then. But given that the Irish are a mediocre defensive team – especially when compared to the rest of the NCAA Tournament field – I don’t think it’s any surprise that they have struggled when it has mattered most.

And this year’s statistics suggest more of the same.

I know I’m not the only one who enjoys the likes of Eric Atkins, Jerian Grant, Jack Cooley, Pat Connaughton, and Cam Biedscheid on offense, but if this group doesn’t improve on defense, an early exit in March seems to be in the works once again.

Twitter:  @soupTOOnuts

Player and Rookie of the Week [week of 1/28 - 2/3]

Player of the Week:

Shabazz Napier

While the Huskies were out-rebounded by 28 against Providence on Thursday night, they shot just well enough from the floor to force overtime and eventually emerge victorious. Napier finished the game with 18 points, but it was his 10 in overtime the propelled the Huskies to the road victory. Shabazz then followed up that overtime performance with another stellar overtime performance Sunday afternoon home against South Florida. He had 11 points in the extra frame, and finished with a game high 24 as UConn was able to hold off the Bulls for a 69-64 win. The Huskies have one of the most talented back courts in the country (Napier, Ryan Boatright and Omar Calhoun) that possesses blazing speed, smooth handles, slick passing and shooters that can get red hot at a flip of the switch, which is put it on display night after night with Napier leading the way.

Rookie of the Week:

Cameron Biedscheid

Biedscheid came off the bench and dropped a career high 18 points against Villanova on Wednesday night. But it was the second half in which he did all his damage. He scored 15 of his 18 points in the final 20 minutes, which included four 3-pointers (he had five total in the game). His four 3s came in a flurry with Jerian Grant to put the Irish ahead, a lead they never surrendered. The Irish ran their signature ‘burn offense’ in which they cycled the ball to perfection and displayed excellent patience to wait for an open shot, with Biedscheid being the beneficiary on multiple occasions. Biedscheid also contributed seven points off the bench to help Notre Dame stave off an embarrassing loss at DePaul on Saturday afternoon.

Twitter:  @soupTOOnuts

The Dominance and Effectiveness of Jack Cooley

If you are simply a casual fan of college basketball you have probably heard of Jack Cooley and have likely seen him play, and then came to the conclusion that he was a slightly above average big white guy with a high motor and good work ethic.  However, while the more than casual fan would agree with that assessment, they would also be aware that in conjunction with that high motor, being tall and being white, he also has some real talent and effectiveness on the floor.

For starters, he is the only player in the Big East averaging a double-double this season; averaging 14.8 points and 10.6 rebounds per game.  Now the Big East is set to implode, but that’s not until next year, so it still holds the label as one of the best conferences in the country.  And in this conference there are still a lot of really talented players.  So to be the only player to average double digit points and rebounds on a nightly basis is impressive (Cooley has 12 double-doubles in 19 games played).

But his dominance extends beyond the Big East. 

Cooley is the ONLY player in the country pulling down more than 20% of available offensive AND defensive rebounds.  

                Offensive Rebounding Percentage:  21.0% (1^st in the country and Big East)

                Defensive Rebounding Percentage:  23.5% (67^th in the country and 2^nd in the Big East)

And if that wasn’t enough, Cooley also leads the Big East in field goal percentage – making 59.4% of his attempts.

Russ Smith and Michael Carter-Williams may be getting all the looks for Big East Player of the Year today, but if Notre Dame can right the ship (they have currently lost three of their last four) and finish near the top of the standings – Cooley will deserve to be in the discussion.

In terms of usage, he is the Irish’s biggest contributor when on the floor, but he averages less than 30 minutes per game (28.7).  Given his bigger frame and high motor, this is to be expected.  But if Notre Dame is going to make a deep run into March they will need one of the most effective players in the country on the floor as much as possible.  

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Where was Cooley Last Night?

We are about 20 hours removed from St. John’s beating #20 Notre Dame in Madison Square Garden, but I am still trying to figure out what happened to Cooley in that game. I am obviously not alone when I ask this questions because when I conducted my search for the reasoning behind his benching (at the end of the game specifically) I was met with similar blogs and articles asking the same question with no real answer.

The only thing that came out of the press conference that I heard was that Coach Brey said that Tom Knight (Cooley’s replacement) gave the Irish added energy on the court.

I watched the entire game last night, and I’d agree that Cooley wasn’t playing up to his regular standards. And I understand that he got into foul trouble in the first half by picking up two quick fouls which relegated him to the bench for the rest of the period. That’s standard protocol around the country when a player get two fouls in the first half. So nothing out of the ordinary there.

Cooley then committed this third foul with 15:26 remaining in the game. Being a big man and essentially the Irish’s best player I could see him being sent back to the bench for a while as he entered danger territory.

But Cooley, a Wooden Award finalist, Big East First Team candidate, the only player in the Big East to average a double-double, and the only player in the entire country to pull down more than 20% of available offensive and defensive rebounds, didn’t play a second in the final 11 minutes.

Foul trouble aside, he wasn’t dominating the game like he can, but he also wasn’t a significant detriment to his team. Yes St. John’s highly energized offense took advantage of him on defense a few times (maybe the fouls were on his mind making him less aggressive?) and he did miss a point blank lay in. And when Tom Knight did come in the game the Irish were able to eliminate a 12 point deficit and take the lead with roughly three minutes remaining. At that point I thought for sure Cooley was coming back in the game as there really wasn’t much to lose at that stage in the game.

But it never happened.

He continued to sit on the bench with an emotionless expression on his face. Maybe Brey was displeased with his energy and effort. Maybe he didn’t care for his undisciplined nature. And maybe because of that he wanted to teach him and the rest of the team a lesson.

If that’s the case it came at the expense of a conference loss in a conference that currently looks to be wide open after the top two spots.

The game was sealed up when shot blocking extraordinaire, Chris Obekpa, blocked a Pat Connaughton challenged layup. But the previous possession saw Tom Knight get blocked at the rim by 6-foot-3 guard D’Angelo Harrison. It’s difficult to imagine that happening to Cooley in that situation.

It’s obviously easy to be critical of the personnel on the court at the end of the game because of the result. But it could be that Coach Brey was trying to send a message to his players. This is only one game in mid-January, so there really is no reason to overreact. However, to look at this in a positive light, this could be the type of message/event that we look back on in two months and say it was a season changer.

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Cincinnati on a Slide

Both Cincinnati and Notre Dame made nine 3-pointers, but the Irish did it by taking five less.  Notre Dame got off to a slow start, only scoring 11 points in the first 13 minutes of the game, but they closed the first half hot – scoring 21 in the final seven minutes.  They did this by cycling the ball beautifully, and converting six consecutive wide-open 3s.  All while Cincinnati had yet another dismal first half trying to get the ball to go through the net.  This was their seventh straight game that they failed to eclipse 30 points before the break.

Once Notre Dame got the Bearcats to spread-out and discontinue their help defense after hitting that barrage of 3s,   they attacked them with pick n rolls and slashes for the entirety of the second half.

Cincinnati went down by as much as 11 in the early going of the second half, but they quickly went on a run to take a two point, 47-45 lead with over 12 minutes remaining in the game.  

The Bearcats actually out-rebounded the Irish by eight (27 to 19), but obviously that didn’t make a difference in the game.  The difference in this game, as it has been for a few games now for Cincy, is that they lack scorers on the floor.  The ESPN crew pointed this out during the game – Cincinnati does not have more than three players on the court at a given time that are legitimate scoring threats.  The Irish were then able to focus on those three players, force them to take tough contested shots, or watch the other players chuck bricks off the rim.  While on the other end of the court Notre Dame had five scoring threats on the floor at all times, allowing them to work the ball (and burn clock) and find good looks all night. 

Cincinnati started the season 12-0, but they were barely tested.  New Mexico came to their place and squeaked out a close one, but the Bearcats bounced back nicely by winning their Big East opener on the road at Pittsburgh (never an easy place to play).  However, they have since dropped back-to-back games at home, and three of their last four.  They now go on the road to Rutgers and DePaul before getting Marquette at home, then back on the road to Syracuse.  Winning on the road in the Big East is never an easy task and five of their next seven are away from home. Also, their schedule is back-loaded, meaning every single game they 'should' win, now needs to be must wins.  This was a team that was coasting along through late December, now they can ill-afford to drop too many more, if any, if they want to compete for the conference title.  

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

The South Florida Bulls Right Now

By Shane McCarthy on March 7, 2012


Resume:


RPI:  44
SOS:  27
BPI:   59
Kenpom:  67
Sagarin:  69
LRMC:  73
Solid wins (RPI):  @Louisville(28), Seton Hall(54), Cincinnati(68)
Bad losses (RPI):  neutral court vs. Penn St.(157), @Auburn(138)
Notable tidbits:  0-5 vs. RPI top 25 teams, nine of their 12 Big East wins were against teams with 12 or more losses, 7-3 in their last six games and have held opponents to under 60 points in nine straight.


No matter what your feelings are for the plethora of metrics out there, they are here to stay and they all say the same thing about the South Florida Bulls - they are a mediocre team that is floating on the bubble.

Finishing 12-6 in the Big East seems impressive, until of course you look more closely.  They played Pittsburgh, Villanova and Providence each twice, who went a combined 14-40 in the conference.  Now, this is by no means the fault of South Florida, as they did not make the schedule nor is it their fault that Nova and Pitt had exceptionally poor years compared to their recent history.  But the hypothetical fact of the matter is... if Nova and Pitt have normal Nova and Pitt seasons, USF probably does not go 4-0 against them.  But, in the end, these victories do not count as 'good' wins anyway.

The Big East has had a down year relative to its history that South Florida to their credit was able to benefit from, but what about their non-conference slate of games.  Is South Florida more accomplished outside the conference compared to say, Seton Hall?  Does not look like it.  USF's best non-conference win is against Cleveland St. and that's about it; while Seton Hall beat VCU, St. Joseph's and Dayton.

It is not that USF is a bad team, because they have improved as the year has gone on, especially on the defensive end.  They take pride in themselves being disciplined, playing physical, and being the tougher team on the court.  Their slow paced offense may not be very efficient, but it actually helps them on defense.  Opponents become frustrated after devoting their attention to 35 seconds of defense which can lead to out of control, impatient possessions on the offensive end.  In a way, they force their opponents to play the same slow and ugly style that they are comfortable with.

Tomorrow the Bulls will get Notre Dame in the third round of the Big East Tournament.  In their only meeting this year they lost 60-49 at Notre Dame two months ago.  The Fighting Irish play this same slow-paced tempo that USF runs, but they are a much better shooting team than USF and they do not turn the ball over nearly as much.

In the end, I will be rooting for South Florida because I want them to make the NCAA Tournament and I actually do think they can beat Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish have not shot the ball particularly well of late and they do not have the big bodies down low to match the toughness of the Bulls.  This could end up being a very ugly game with bricks galore being chucked around.  For South Florida, this will be their biggest game of the season because it is about 'who did you play and who did you beat' and now is the time for USF to prove that they can beat someone.  Beating Notre Dame tomorrow night would be their second best win of the year.

Twitter --> @shane_t_mac

Power Rankings / A Look Back & Ahead 2-27-12



Dion Waiters and Cuse out-dueled UConn on Saturday

Gearing up for the conference tournament

By Shane McCarthy on February 27, 2012

1.     #2 Syracuse Orange (29-1 / 16-1)

Last week:  WON 56-48 vs South Florida, WON 71-69 @ Connecticut

This week:  Sat, March 3 vs Louisville

The only semi-negative thing you can say about the Orange is that they have trouble putting together 40 minutes of the good basketball that they are capable of playing, but this team is 29-1, #2 in the country, have not lost with Fab Melo in the lineup, and always find a way to win.  Being so deep and talented, there are only a handful of teams that can matchup with them barring an off-shooting night.

2.     #7 Marquette Golden Eagles (24-5 / 13-3)

Last week:  WON 82-65 vs Rutgers, WON 61-60 @ West Virginia

This week:  Wed, Feb 29 @ Cincinnati; Sat, March 3 vs Georgetown

Part of me wants to power rank Marquette #1, but that's difficult to warrant without an Orange loss.  They are playing at a very high level right now, as was on display Friday night when the Golden Eagles beat West Virginia without DJO, Blue and Cadougan playing the first half.  I would like to see this team get another shot at Syracuse in the Big East Tournament.        

3.     #12 Georgetown Hoyas (21-6 / 11-5)

Last week:  LOSS 73-55 @ Seton Hall, WON 67-46 vs Villanova

This week:  Mon, Feb 27 vs Notre Dame, Sat, March 3 @ Marquette

The Hoyas slipped up at a desperate Seton Hall team in the middle of the week, but they recovered nicely with a decisive win at home over Villanova on Saturday.  They aren’t the most talented team offensively, but they wreak havoc on the defensive end.   They will be a tough team to prep for on short notice.

4.     #18 Louisville Cardinals (22-7 / 10-6)

Last week:  LOSS 60-56 @ Cincinnati, WON 57-54 vs Pittsburgh

This week:  Wed, Feb 29 vs South Florida; Sat, March 3 @ Syracuse

The Cardinals haven’t been playing their best basketball as of late, but they are still a talented team that can stay on the floor with anyone.  They get a desperate South Florida team and another shot at Syracuse this week to garner some momentum heading into the Big East Tournament.

5.     #19 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (20-9 / 12-4)

Last week:  WON 71-44 vs West Virginia, LOSS 61-58 @ St. John’s

This week:  Mon, Feb 27 @ Georgetown; Fri, March 2 vs Providence

After reeling off nine straight victories, the Irish faltered at St. John’s over the weekend.  As poorly as they shot the ball and as little involved that Jack Cooley was, it was encouraging that they only lost by three.  They are in for a tough game at Georgetown on Monday night, but they are more than capable of winning.

6.     Connecticut Huskies (17-11 / 7-9)

Last week:  WON 73-70 OT @ Villanova, LOSS 71-69 vs Syracuse

This week:  Tue, Feb 28 @ Providence; Sat, March 3 vs Pittsburgh

Tough loss at home to Syracuse, but it was encouraging to see them come back from 17 down in the second half.  They could be the most talented team in the conference if they could display more cohesiveness and showed some controlled urgency on the court.   I do not think anyone would be surprised if the Huskies won the Big East Tournament in two weeks.  Maybe the return of Coach Calhoun will bring the spark they need.

7.     Cincinnati Bearcats (20-9 / 10-6)

Last week:  WON 60-56 vs Louisville, LOSS 46-45 @ South Florida

This week:  Wed, Feb 29 vs Marquette; Sat, March 3 @ Villanova

After Sunday’s loss at South Florida, the Bearcats are probably back on the bubble.  Cincinnati is a tough team to figure out as they have been incredibly inconsistent all year long.  They have a tough matchup in Marquette this week, but a win will put them firmly back in the tournament.

8.     West Virginia Mountaineers (17-12 / 7-9)

Last week:  LOSS 71-44 @ Notre Dame, LOSS 61-60 vs Marquette

This week:  Tue, Feb 28 vs DePaul; Sat, March 3 @ South Florida

Very tough loss at home on Friday night to a short-staked Marquette team.  Coach Huggins should probably put a limit on the number of shots Truck Bryant is allowed to take per game.  Once he sees a few go through the bucket, he’ll shoot a trillion times if he could.  They have two favorable matchups this week to get back on the right track, but they have work to do.

9.     South Florida Bulls (18-11 / 11-5)

Last week:  LOSS 56-48 @ Syracuse, WON 46-45 vs Cincinnati

This week:  Wed, Feb 29 @ Louisville; Sat, March 3 vs West Virginia

Well, for the first half of the first half it looked as if South Florida was going to take down Syracuse, but come to find out, winning the first 10 minutes of a basketball game is worthless unless you win all 40.  Their bounce-back win [and their first notable win at that], over Cincinnati had the feel of a tournament game as both teams knew the importance of it.  More work is probably needed by the Bulls and they will get that chance at Louisville this week. 

10.  Seton Hall Pirates (19-10 / 8-9)

Last week:  WON 73-55 vs Georgetown, LOSS 77-72 OT vs Rutgers

This week:  Sat, March 3 @ DePaul

All that Seton Hall needed to do after getting that noteworthy win over Georgetown, was not take a bad loss; which meant not losing at home to Rutgers.  Of course, however, that is exactly what they did.  DePaul is an absolute must win this week and a win in the Big East Tournament may be a necessity at this point.    

11.  Pittsburgh Panthers (15-14 / 4-12)

Last week:  LOSS 57-54 @ Louisville

This week:  Wed, Feb 29 vs St. John’s; Sat, March 3 @ Connecticut

The disaster season for Pitt continues as they have now lost five in a row.  I’m not sure what they were thinking when they were down three at L’ville with 13 seconds left going for a two, fouling, and ultimately giving themselves less time to tie the game with a three point desperation heave.  Nonetheless, this team is still putting up a fight and possesses talent.  It’s highly unlikely, but I suppose they could somehow pull it together in time for the Big East Tournament.

12.  St. John’s Red Storm (13-16 / 6-10)

Last week:  WON 79-72 vs DePaul, WON 61-58 vs Notre Dame

This week:  Wed, Feb 29 @ Pittsburgh; Sat, Feb 3 @ Rutgers

St. John’s is a fun team to watch right now as they have been playing better basketball as of late, taking down UCLA and Notre Dame in the past two weeks.  Moe Harkless has to be the frontrunner for Big East Rookie of the Year and he has his team poised for an upset in the Big East Tournament. 

13.  Rutgers Scarlet Knights (13-16 / 5-11)

Last week:  LOSS 82-65 @ Marquette, WON 77-72 OT @ Seton Hall

This week:  Thu, March 1 vs Villanova; Sat, March 3 vs St. John’s

Rutgers played spoiler role at Seton Hall over the weekend and their season finale matchup with St. John’s this week should be a fun one.  Both teams are talented, just raw, but it makes for entertaining basketball.

14.  Villanova Wildcats (11-17 / 4-12)

Last week:  LOSS 73-70 OT vs Connecticut, LOSS 67-46 vs Georgetown

This week:  Thu, March 1 @ Rutgers; Sat, March 3 vs Cincinnati

You know you are having a rough season when one of your starters, JayVaughn Pinkston, comes down on a ball after dunking in warm-ups and turns his ankle.  It’s almost over Villanova, two more weeks.

15.   Providence Friars (14-15 / 3-13)

Last week:  WON 73-71 @ DePaul

This week:  Tue, Feb 28 vs Connecticut; Fri, March 2 @ Notre Dame

Providence handled DePaul to get out of the Big East basement on Saturday.  For a team that is 3-13 - you have to appreciate the little things. 

16.   DePaul Blue Demons (11-17 / 2-14)

Last week:  LOSS 79-72 @ St. John’s, LOSS 73-71 vs Providence

This week:  Tue, Feb 28 @ West Virginia; Sat, March 3 vs Seton Hall

The Blue Demons have lost 13 of their last 14.  Not really much else to say besides that they have been competitive in their last three games.  

@shane_t_mac

Notre Dame, A Bunch of Over-Achievers?

Led by Jack Cooley, the Fighting Irish are 9-1 in their last 10 games

The Irish went from disaster to dominanting

By Shane McCarthy on February 26, 2012

Entering the 2011-2012 season, the Irish were a team without a lot of experience, very little depth, and when Tim Abromaitis was lost for the year six games in due to injury, a team that lacked a star quality player to lean on. 

When Notre Dame finished their non-conference portion of their season, they were 8-5, and they didn’t have one notable win in the eight they possessed.  They got blown out by Missouri and Gonzaga and also lost to Georgia, Maryland and Indiana.  Unfortunately, wins against Sam Houston State and Maine did not prove that this team was any good. 

The Irish started Big East Conference play with more of the same.  At 3-3, they managed to beat Pittsburgh and Louisville, but it was still widely expected that the Fighting Irish were bound to finish as a bottom dweller in the Big East and receive a NIT bid. 

Now in late February, it’s amazing to see how this team turned it around.  At 12-4 in conference and 20-9 overall, could they be the biggest surprise of the year or have they just been over-achieving?

After a difficult loss at Rutgers on January 16, Notre Dame went on to win nine straight conference games, the most in school history.  The streak started when they caught a then #1 Syracuse team flat and directionless as they were playing their first of three games without Fab Melo.  There is no telling if Notre Dame can pull off that win with Melo in the lineup, but that was not their problem as they took advantage of the situation. 

That victory over the Orange may have been the spark that ignited the run, but it was also the fact that the Irish became the anti-Connecticut team.  While UConn possesses boatloads of talent with no team chemistry, Notre Dame makes up for their lack of talent with great chemistry and smart play. 

Jack Cooley, a role player last year, kept his big body, but fine-tuned it from goofy to talented, and is now winning Big East Player of the Week awards.  Combine his skills with great guard play from Jerian Grant and Eric Atkins, two white guys that can shoot and play tough defense in Pat Connaughton and Alex Dragicevich, and you have a solid team that is well-rounded. 

Now the Big East has not played as tough this year as in years past, but it is still a deep conference with no sure-things.  The argument can be made however, that Notre Dame was able to take advantage of a soft patch in their schedule.  With or without Fab Melo, Syracuse is a high quality win given their depth and talent, but they were also able to catch imploding UConn and West Virginia teams.   Their decisive win against Marquette was impressive, but they were also able to get Seton Hall, Rutgers, DePaul and Villanova in that stretch.   Nothing spectacular, but in the end - wins are wins.  

So what changed?  In short, nothing that shows up in the box score changed much.  They increased their assists per game from 14.3 in their first 19 games to 15.4 in the last 10, but their turnovers went up from 9.9 to 10.2.  Their FG%, 3PT% and rebounds per game all have also remained fairly constant.  They did however stiffen up their defense and reduced their opponents FG% from 42% to 38%. 

Notre Dame does rely on the three point shot often and if they don’t shoot well, they don’t have enough inside presence to win games.   This was on display yesterday at St. Johns as the Red Storm did an admirable job of reducing Cooley’s touches and forced the Irish to take a lot of long shots.  The Irish didn’t shoot well, 4 of 31 from three, and ended up losing the game by three points.

Some may say that they were fortunate to even be in the game with St. Johns at the end, but I see that as a positive.  They shot the ball terribly, Cooley never got going, and they still had an open look at the buzzer to send it to overtime.  Most teams would have lost by 15+.

So, what did change then?  The Irish have turned their early season struggles into success by changing their attitude.  Lead by the reigning National Coach of the Year, Mike Brey, this team believes they should be having this type of success.   They are definitely not the most athletic or talented team, but as long as they keep working hard and do not become relaxed, there is no reason why this team can’t continue to enjoy success. 

So, have they over-achieved?  Maybe, but this team earned it through hard work and buying into each other.  The Fighting Irish went from a NIT bid at best six weeks ago to possibly a five or six seed in the NCAA Tournament.  My guess is they get one win before going out in the round of 32, but it is hard to bet against a team that believes they should be winning.    

@shane_t_mac