Notre Dame has One Glaring Defensive Issue, Again

When it comes to running an efficient offense Notre Dame is not only one of the best, but one of the most consistent teams in the nation year after year.

Going as far back as KenPom’s tempo-free history has data for – which is 2003 – the Irish have only once had their offense ranked outside the top-50, which was 51^st in 2005. They have finished in the top-10 in five seasons over that span and are currently 11^th this year. Their offensive prowess is predicated on excellent 3-point shooting (finishing in the top 30 in 3-point percentage in eight of 11 seasons) along with being one of the best teams in the country at protecting the ball. Their turnover percentage has never been worse than 29^th.

But for how good Notre Dame is at protecting the ball, they are equally and oppositely terrible at taking it away from their opponents.

Now the Irish aren’t a terrible defensive team. Their average rank over the past 11 seasons is 90^th, but that isn’t good enough in the Big East as they are usually at or near the bottom in the conference.

And the finger can be pointed directly at their ability - or lack thereof - to force turnovers.  The Irish are absolutely atrocious at turning their opponent over. Take a look at the chart below. They have consistently ranked outside the top-300 in the country at forcing turnovers. And only once have they cracked the top-200, which is a complete anomaly because all 10 other seasons have been over 300.

The Irish do compensate for this by not fouling often (at least fouls that result in their opponent going to the free throw line, anyway) and they are a respectable rebounding team year after year. But when you run that slow ‘burn’ offense without generating turnovers to create extra possessions, you are consistently playing with fire and will likely be in many more close games than you would like, especially against upper echelon opponents or in hostile environments. Just take a look at what the Irish have done in the NCAA Tournament over the past 10 seasons…

2012: Lost their first game as a 7 seed

2011: Won one game as a 2 seed

2010: Lost their first game as a 6 seed

2008: Won one game as a 5 seed

2007: Lost their first game as a 6 seed

2003: Won two games as a 5 seed

Notre Dame has made the tournament as an at-large bid in six of the last 10 seasons and has never been worse than a seven seed. But only once – 10 years ago – have they made it out of the first weekend, while succumbing to one-and-done on three occasions.

One would think that given the fact that Notre Dame is more or less consistently ranked in the top-25 throughout the season that they would have better fortunes in the tournament every now and then. But given that the Irish are a mediocre defensive team – especially when compared to the rest of the NCAA Tournament field – I don’t think it’s any surprise that they have struggled when it has mattered most.

And this year’s statistics suggest more of the same.

I know I’m not the only one who enjoys the likes of Eric Atkins, Jerian Grant, Jack Cooley, Pat Connaughton, and Cam Biedscheid on offense, but if this group doesn’t improve on defense, an early exit in March seems to be in the works once again.

Twitter:  @soupTOOnuts

Taking a Look at Pittsburgh - Polls or Advanced Indexes?

The Pittsburgh Panthers are currently unranked, sitting 9^th in the Big East at 5-4, and are 17-5 overall. However, the advanced metrics and rankings indexes love the Pitt Panthers (6^th on Kenpom.com, 9^th on LRMC, 12^th on Sagarin ratings, and 14^th on ESPN’s BPI).

Are they what their record says they are or are they closer to what the advanced analytics suggest?

They have one good win (blowing out Georgetown on the road), with only one real blemish on their resume (at Rutgers). They did play Michigan tough on a neutral court and their win at Villanova is looking better by the day. Other than those four games their non-conference schedule was weak - to put it lightly, while they have lost tough conference games to Cincinnati, Marquette in OT (while playing the entire game without a concussed Tray Woodall), and at Louisville.

The reason why the advanced rankings admire Pitt is due to a combination of their offensive and defensive efficiency, they do not turn the ball over often and they possess one of the best offensive rebounding rates in the country.

Let’s take a look.

Their efficiency numbers are solid:

Pitt is one of the slowest playing teams in the country (not in terms of speed because they play an up-tempo pace, but in terms of maximizing the shot clock and having lengthy possession) as they average 61.3 possessions per 40 minutes, placing them 339^th in the country. However, they score 1.18 points per possession (4^th best in the country) while only yielding 0.9 points per possession (29^th).  And when you look at Big East only games (which is more appropriate given their cupcake non-conference schedule) they are scoring 1.07PPP while only yielding 0.95PPP on defense - for an efficiency margin of +.12 (tied for the conference lead with Louisville and Syracuse). 

They protect the ball, but take it away from opponents just as well:

The average team in the country turns the ball over on 20.5% of their possession. The Panthers are only turning the ball over on 17.3% of their possession, while taking it away from their opponents on 23.4% of their possession – creating four extra possessions a game. Given that they play slow it is imperative that they take extra care of the ball, but by generating extra possession by forcing turnovers is an added bonus.

The Panthers have a knack for grabbing offensive rebounds:

Pitt shoots a very respectable 48.9% from the field (12^th in the country), which is not surprising given their exceptional points per possession rate.  But when they do miss they are pulling down a whopping 42.5% of all available offensive rebound opportunities.  That rate is second best in the country.  And they only allow their opponents to grab their available offensive rebounds 29.8% of the time.  This differential yields the Panthers another four possessions in their games. 

So to quickly recap:  Pitt not only takes care of and shoots the ball well, but they also generate an extra eight possessions a game over their opponents.  Sounds like a recipe for winning.

The problem?

Simply put:  foul shooting.  While the Panthers do get to the free throw line on an average amount per game, they just don’t make their foul shots when they get there.  They are shooting 66.1% from the line, which is good for 256^th in the country.  And a majority of this issue can be directly attributed to big man Steven Adams, who is shooting a putrid 32.6% from the stripe.  And not only does Adams struggle at the line, but for a big man, he struggles just to get to the line.  He has only taken 43 foul shots on the year – fifth most on the team.  James Robinson, freshman point guard, has more free throw attempts than Adams.  

Also with Adams, he just needs to be on the court more.  He has played in 56.4% of available minutes this year for Pitt, or fifth most on the team as he seems to pick up an early foul (and often two) every game - forcing him to the bench for large portions of the first half.  Adams has shown his inexperience often this season, but the old adage goes:  you can’t teach seven foot.  Adams is a monster in the low post posing as a mismatch in almost every game.  While his touch around the rim and his knowledge of the game continue to improve, it is simply important for him to be on the court just for defensive purposes.  His ability to block and alter shots his outstanding.  

The verdict?

Pittsburgh is a good team, but they have struggled a bit against better competition throughout the year (not a surprise for any team) and they've yet to break through with a 'marquee' win.  However, this team does not necessarily need to get better; they just need Steven Adams to get better.  He is a game changer with his size and athleticism.  And when watching this team I can definitely say that this is a Sweet 16 caliber team.  So given that, the advanced rankings seem to be in the ballpark of how good this team is.  And I won't be surprised if they grab some attention this Saturday when they host Syracuse.      

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac