Taking a Look at Pittsburgh - Polls or Advanced Indexes?

The Pittsburgh Panthers are currently unranked, sitting 9^th in the Big East at 5-4, and are 17-5 overall. However, the advanced metrics and rankings indexes love the Pitt Panthers (6^th on Kenpom.com, 9^th on LRMC, 12^th on Sagarin ratings, and 14^th on ESPN’s BPI).

Are they what their record says they are or are they closer to what the advanced analytics suggest?

They have one good win (blowing out Georgetown on the road), with only one real blemish on their resume (at Rutgers). They did play Michigan tough on a neutral court and their win at Villanova is looking better by the day. Other than those four games their non-conference schedule was weak - to put it lightly, while they have lost tough conference games to Cincinnati, Marquette in OT (while playing the entire game without a concussed Tray Woodall), and at Louisville.

The reason why the advanced rankings admire Pitt is due to a combination of their offensive and defensive efficiency, they do not turn the ball over often and they possess one of the best offensive rebounding rates in the country.

Let’s take a look.

Their efficiency numbers are solid:

Pitt is one of the slowest playing teams in the country (not in terms of speed because they play an up-tempo pace, but in terms of maximizing the shot clock and having lengthy possession) as they average 61.3 possessions per 40 minutes, placing them 339^th in the country. However, they score 1.18 points per possession (4^th best in the country) while only yielding 0.9 points per possession (29^th).  And when you look at Big East only games (which is more appropriate given their cupcake non-conference schedule) they are scoring 1.07PPP while only yielding 0.95PPP on defense - for an efficiency margin of +.12 (tied for the conference lead with Louisville and Syracuse). 

They protect the ball, but take it away from opponents just as well:

The average team in the country turns the ball over on 20.5% of their possession. The Panthers are only turning the ball over on 17.3% of their possession, while taking it away from their opponents on 23.4% of their possession – creating four extra possessions a game. Given that they play slow it is imperative that they take extra care of the ball, but by generating extra possession by forcing turnovers is an added bonus.

The Panthers have a knack for grabbing offensive rebounds:

Pitt shoots a very respectable 48.9% from the field (12^th in the country), which is not surprising given their exceptional points per possession rate.  But when they do miss they are pulling down a whopping 42.5% of all available offensive rebound opportunities.  That rate is second best in the country.  And they only allow their opponents to grab their available offensive rebounds 29.8% of the time.  This differential yields the Panthers another four possessions in their games. 

So to quickly recap:  Pitt not only takes care of and shoots the ball well, but they also generate an extra eight possessions a game over their opponents.  Sounds like a recipe for winning.

The problem?

Simply put:  foul shooting.  While the Panthers do get to the free throw line on an average amount per game, they just don’t make their foul shots when they get there.  They are shooting 66.1% from the line, which is good for 256^th in the country.  And a majority of this issue can be directly attributed to big man Steven Adams, who is shooting a putrid 32.6% from the stripe.  And not only does Adams struggle at the line, but for a big man, he struggles just to get to the line.  He has only taken 43 foul shots on the year – fifth most on the team.  James Robinson, freshman point guard, has more free throw attempts than Adams.  

Also with Adams, he just needs to be on the court more.  He has played in 56.4% of available minutes this year for Pitt, or fifth most on the team as he seems to pick up an early foul (and often two) every game - forcing him to the bench for large portions of the first half.  Adams has shown his inexperience often this season, but the old adage goes:  you can’t teach seven foot.  Adams is a monster in the low post posing as a mismatch in almost every game.  While his touch around the rim and his knowledge of the game continue to improve, it is simply important for him to be on the court just for defensive purposes.  His ability to block and alter shots his outstanding.  

The verdict?

Pittsburgh is a good team, but they have struggled a bit against better competition throughout the year (not a surprise for any team) and they've yet to break through with a 'marquee' win.  However, this team does not necessarily need to get better; they just need Steven Adams to get better.  He is a game changer with his size and athleticism.  And when watching this team I can definitely say that this is a Sweet 16 caliber team.  So given that, the advanced rankings seem to be in the ballpark of how good this team is.  And I won't be surprised if they grab some attention this Saturday when they host Syracuse.      

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Predictions for the Final Season of the Big East as we Know It

Who Will Win the League?

We will likely find out on January 19^th when Syracuse travels to Louisville for a heavy weight showdown.  The Cardinals and the Orange are the clear cut two best teams in the Big East.  These two thankfully see each other twice, and obviously one will have to lose, however I don’t believe either will finish undefeated in the Big East.  Both will lose two or three games as there are too many quality teams in the conference, and winning on the road is never easy.

Prediction:  Syracuse.  Truly a gut call here as you could flip a coin between Cuse and Louisville.  Defensively, these teams are one and two in the country, both have excellent point guard play and both teams can go fairly deep on their bench. The two regular season games between the two should be great.    

Who are the Player of the Year Candidates?

Right now this seems to be a two horse race between Michael Carter-Williams and Russ Smith.  MCW leads the nation in assists per game at a clip of 10.1.  But he also snatches three steals and makes the Orange extra-long at the top of the 2-3 zone.  However, Russ Smith has been playing as Russdiculous as ever.  There’s not a player in the country that takes as many crazy shots as him, and makes them.  He is currently averaging an even 20 points per game, while being the engine to the Cards up-tempo play.  Jack Cooley and Otto Porter are two others that will deserve consideration at the end of the season.

Prediction:  Michael Carter-Williams.  Given that I believe Syracuse will win the league, I’ll go with Carter-Williams to win POY.  I know that he is not a good shooter, but his slashing and distribution capabilities make the Orange a difficult team to match up with. 

Who are the Rookie of the Year Candidates?

There hasn’t been a Big East rookie stick out yet like Moe Harkless did last year at St. John’s.  But while there doesn’t seem to be a favorite at this time, there are a pool of candidates.  Steven Adams was the Preseason Rookie of the Year, but it is another freshman on Pittsburgh that has excelled, James Robinson.  Robinson has handled the majority of the point guard duties for the Panthers while allowing Tray Woodall to play more freely in the two position.  Adams is still a candidate, but he looks awkward and unsure far too often, and hasn’t been as dominant as many were hoping.  Ryan Arcidiacono of Villanova is a shifty point guard who has a knack for scoring, but needs to become more consistent.  Jakarr Sampson of St. John’s and Cameron Biedscheid of Notre Dame are excellent scorers while Kris Dunn of Providence is an excellent ball handler, who recently made his debut after recovering for an injury,  who are all worthy candidates in the early going.

Prediction:  James Robinson.  He certainly is not the best scorer of the candidates (that belongs to Sampson), but he plays a large role on a team that should finish near the top of the conference.  However, Arcidiacono and Sampson are the likely favorites today.

How Many Teams will Make the NCAA Tournament?

Prediction:  Seven.  Syracuse, Louisville, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Marquette. 

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac 

Big East 2012-13 Predictions

By:  Shane McCarthy

April seems forever ago, but the wait is finally over and the season starts tonight.  But before we get to actual games, let’s make a few more predictions to add to the excitement.

Big East Regular Season Title:  Louisville

Too much depth and experience.

Big East Tournament Title:  Syracuse

After watching UConn and Louisville streak through the tournament the last two years, it will be Cuse’s turn this year.

NCAA Tournament bids:  7

Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Georgetown

And given the seemingly wide-open nature of college basketball this year, I predict two Big East teams will make the Final Four. 

Player of the Year:  Michael Carter-Williams

I think Syracuse is going to be really good this year [again], and the reason being is going to be MCW.  He will mold into an excellent point guard who not only scores and plays excellent defense, but makes everyone on the floor better.

Rookie of the Year:  Steven Adams

There is a little bit of hype surrounding the freshmen center at Pittsburgh.  The 7 foot, 240 pound New Zealander will give opposing teams fits on both ends of the floor.

Defensive Player of the Year:  Gorgui Dieng

Every year Dieng has improved little by little.  And it looked like he was improving every game last year to the point where he became one of the best centers in the country.  He will be even better this year and will be one of the best shot blockers in the country.

Coach of the Year:  Buzz Williams

Buzz is an excellent coach who tends to get more out of his players than anyone ever expects.  I’m high on Marquette this year, while others are lukewarm, and by exceeding expectations he will earn coach of the year honors. 

All-Big East First Team

G:  Michael Carter-Williams

G:  Peyton Siva

G:  Vincent Council

F:  Gorgui Dieng

F:  Otto Porter

F:  Jack Cooley 

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Big East Preview: #5 Pittsburgh Panthers

Previewing all 15 teams from #15 to #1

By:  Shane McCarthy

Last season was a disaster. Plain and simple. The Panthers only won five conference games, had an eight game losing streak and ended a 10 year run of making the NCAA Tournament.  But that was last year, and this year the Pitt Panthers look poised to return as a Big East contender.

Who’s Back:

Tray Woodall –G– Senior – 31 Min, 11.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 6.1 apg

Lamar Patterson –F– Junior – 28.5 Min, 9.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.6 apg

Talib Zanna –F– Junior – 19.3 Min, 6.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.3 apg

Dante Taylor –F– Senior – 18.8 Min, 5.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.5 apg

J.J. Moore –F– Junior – 18.4 Min, 7.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 0.4 apg

John Johnson –G– Soph – 14.1 Min, 4.2 ppg, 0.6 rpg, 1.2 apg 

Cameron Wright –G– Soph – 11.7 Min, 2.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.7 apg

Incoming Recruits:

Steven Adams – [Center] – 7 foot 0, 240

ESPN’s 6^th rated player and 4^th rated Center

Rivals.com’s 5^th rated player and 3^rd rated Center

James Robinson – [Point Guard] – 6 foot 3, 190

ESPN’s 43^rd ranked player and 4^th rated Point Guard

Rivals.com’s 59^th rated player and 8^th rated Point Guard

Chris Jones – [Shooting Guard] – 6 foot 5, 205

Incoming Transfers:

Trey Zeigler – [Shooting Guard] – 6 foot 5, 203

A transfer from Central Michigan, Trey will immediately be eligible for the Panthers this year.  He averaged 16 ppg, 6.1 rpg and 2.3 apg in his two seasons at Central Michigan.  In the 2010 recruiting class, Zeigler was the 28^th ranked player by Rivals and 33^rd ranked player by ESPN. 

Who’s Out:  Ashton Gibbs, Nasir Robinson

Overview:

Pittsburgh may have had the Preseason Big East Player of the Year on their roster last season (Ashton Gibbs), but it was clear they were going to go as far as Tray Woodall could take them.  Well Tray got hurt during their non-conference portion of their schedule, sat out an extended period of time and never got healthy until the very end of the season.  As a result, the Panthers were relegated to accepting an invitation to the College Basketball Invitation (CBI) – which they won!  Let’s just say, a return to the CBI is not the aspirations of the 2012-13 squad.

Woodall returns for his senior season, and he had offseason surgery to correct the issue he was hampered by last year.  Once again this team will likely go as far as he takes them, but unlike last year, Pitt has quality depth at point guard if needed.  Tray is one of the great distributors of the ball in the nation (he ranked third in the Big East with 6.1 apg), and it is paramount that he is on the floor as much as possible.  But when he’s not, Coach Dixon feels incoming recruit James Robinson can do a fine job of filling his shoes.

Pittsburgh will also be welcoming back upperclassmen Lamar Patterson and Dante Taylor.  Patterson really came on at the end of the season last year, but Taylor, a former McDonald’s All American, has battled through injuries throughout his career.  Both could be primed for enormous break-out seasons, not only based on potential and health, but also do to talented new-comers who will make the team better.

Trey Zeigler is a transfer from Central Michigan who is an excellent two guard.  Even though Gibbs underwhelmed last year, expect Zeigler (a highly touted recruit from 2010) to fill his role as the dynamic scorer on the Panthers.  And the already mentioned Robinson will provide excellent depth in the back court.

But the real prize is Steven Adams.

A true center from New Zealand, Adams immediately makes the Panthers a Big East contender.  There have been mixed reviews on him (mainly that his talents are raw), but one thing has been consistent – he is a defensive force.  The good news is that he will not have to carry this team, as he will be surrounded by talented players and an exceptional coach.  But if he does play at the level that already has pro scouts drooling, the whole country will have to be on watch.

The entire Pitt Panthers team, community and fan base would like to forget about last year.  I don’t think anyone saw that coming.  And after so many years of consistent excellence, such a drop-off didn’t even seem possible.  But the Panthers are retooled with a very talented lineup to make last year’s hangover-like season go away.  If this team runs through Woodall and Adams like it should, surrounded by talent all over the floor, a #5 finish in the Big East seems too low. The conference got a gift last year as playing Pitt meant a walk-over, but the Panthers should get back to their old ways of stomping opponents this year. 

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Big East Preseason Rookie of the Year Candidates

By:  Shane McCarthy

The conference preseason awards will be announced at the Big East Media Day tomorrow (October 17).  Before that, let's take a look at the candidates for Preseason Rookie of the Year. (Yesterday, I posted the likely candidates and my pick for Player of the Year)

Last year the preseason honor was given to Andre Drummond, the highly touted center at Connecticut. But he never transformed into the dominant player UConn or the country was expecting.  No worries though, he was still the 9^th overall selection in the NBA draft because well, NBA teams have a serious infatuation with athletic centers.  And rightfully so – as freakishly athletic centers can transform a team and instantly turn them into title contenders. 

However, as stated - Andre never became that player during his one-and-done year at UConn.  The end of the year Big East Rookie of the Year honors went to St. John’s dynamic forward Moe Harkless.  Moe filled up the stat sheet in the Garden and possessed the build and athleticism to earn him the 15^th overall selection in the NBA draft. 

But that was all last year.  Let’s look at the candidates for this year.  In alphabetical order:

Steven Adams – [Pittsburgh] Center – 7 foot 0, 240

ESPN’s 6^th ranked player and 4^th ranked Center

Rivals.com’s 5^th ranked player and 3^rd ranked Center

He has the size and athleticism to overwhelm opponents down low and become a dominant force on both ends of the court.  Most college freshman big-men are still growing into their bodies, but Steven is already there, and possesses a high motor to go along with it.

Cameron Biedscheid – [Notre Dame] Small Forward – 6 foot 7, 174

ESPN’s 64^th ranked player and 15^th ranked Small Forward

Rivals.com’s 28^th ranked player and 8^th ranked Small Forward

Cameron is more of a hybrid wing-type player who is excellent in transition and has a good shot.  He is not likely to start for the Irish, but he will be heavily involved in their normal rotation.

Omar Calhoun – [Connecticut] Shooting Guard – 6 foot 3, 185

ESPN’s 32^nd ranked player and 7^th ranked Shooting Guard

Rivals.com’s 39^th ranked player and 10^th ranked Shooting Guard

Even with the talented back court of Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright, Calhoun should get considerable playing time given his big time scoring abilities. 

DaJuan Coleman – [Syracuse] Center – 6 foot 9, 275

ESPN’s 14^th ranked player and 6^th ranked Center

Rivals.com’s 26^th ranked player and 5^th ranked Center

McDonald’s All-American

Coleman is a big man who should start from day one for the Orange.  Over the summer he made it a point of emphasis to improve his physical conditioning which should help him stay on the floor, dominate the paint and be the center of the vaunted 2-3 zone. 

Montrezl Harrell – [Louisville] Power Forward – 6 foot 7, 225

ESPN’s 90^th ranked player and 18^th ranked Power Forward

Rivals.com’s 82^nd ranked player and 20^th ranked Power Forward

Harrell has exhibited both the explosiveness at the rim and long range ability that a player his size can use to absolutely dominate the competition with.  He is not expected to start for the Cardinals, but given the talent around him, he could be a matchup nightmare for opponents once he gets on the floor.

D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera – [Georgetown] Shooting Guard – 6 foot 3, 210

ESPN’s 58^th ranked player and 10^th ranked Shooting Guard

Rivals.com’s 32^nd ranked player and 8^th ranked Shooting Guard

Smith-Rivera is an excellent shooter who also has the size to score in the paint.  He has an advanced knowledge of the game and should push for a starting role in the Hoyas’ lineup. 

The Pick:  Steven Adams

I know - it seems easy and cheap to pick the highest recruited player on the list.  But at the same time it does make sense.  Not only because he is the highest ranked, but because he is entering a situation where he will make an immediate impact.   Even though Pittsburgh is coming off an incredibly disappointing season by their standards - they are returning a bunch of talent, but are lacking a true big man.  Enter Steven Adams.  Steven should take the opening tip from game 1 and be a significant contributor throughout the season to help Pitt compete for a Big East title in their last season as a member of the conference.  

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac