Taking a Look at Pittsburgh - Polls or Advanced Indexes?

The Pittsburgh Panthers are currently unranked, sitting 9^th in the Big East at 5-4, and are 17-5 overall. However, the advanced metrics and rankings indexes love the Pitt Panthers (6^th on Kenpom.com, 9^th on LRMC, 12^th on Sagarin ratings, and 14^th on ESPN’s BPI).

Are they what their record says they are or are they closer to what the advanced analytics suggest?

They have one good win (blowing out Georgetown on the road), with only one real blemish on their resume (at Rutgers). They did play Michigan tough on a neutral court and their win at Villanova is looking better by the day. Other than those four games their non-conference schedule was weak - to put it lightly, while they have lost tough conference games to Cincinnati, Marquette in OT (while playing the entire game without a concussed Tray Woodall), and at Louisville.

The reason why the advanced rankings admire Pitt is due to a combination of their offensive and defensive efficiency, they do not turn the ball over often and they possess one of the best offensive rebounding rates in the country.

Let’s take a look.

Their efficiency numbers are solid:

Pitt is one of the slowest playing teams in the country (not in terms of speed because they play an up-tempo pace, but in terms of maximizing the shot clock and having lengthy possession) as they average 61.3 possessions per 40 minutes, placing them 339^th in the country. However, they score 1.18 points per possession (4^th best in the country) while only yielding 0.9 points per possession (29^th).  And when you look at Big East only games (which is more appropriate given their cupcake non-conference schedule) they are scoring 1.07PPP while only yielding 0.95PPP on defense - for an efficiency margin of +.12 (tied for the conference lead with Louisville and Syracuse). 

They protect the ball, but take it away from opponents just as well:

The average team in the country turns the ball over on 20.5% of their possession. The Panthers are only turning the ball over on 17.3% of their possession, while taking it away from their opponents on 23.4% of their possession – creating four extra possessions a game. Given that they play slow it is imperative that they take extra care of the ball, but by generating extra possession by forcing turnovers is an added bonus.

The Panthers have a knack for grabbing offensive rebounds:

Pitt shoots a very respectable 48.9% from the field (12^th in the country), which is not surprising given their exceptional points per possession rate.  But when they do miss they are pulling down a whopping 42.5% of all available offensive rebound opportunities.  That rate is second best in the country.  And they only allow their opponents to grab their available offensive rebounds 29.8% of the time.  This differential yields the Panthers another four possessions in their games. 

So to quickly recap:  Pitt not only takes care of and shoots the ball well, but they also generate an extra eight possessions a game over their opponents.  Sounds like a recipe for winning.

The problem?

Simply put:  foul shooting.  While the Panthers do get to the free throw line on an average amount per game, they just don’t make their foul shots when they get there.  They are shooting 66.1% from the line, which is good for 256^th in the country.  And a majority of this issue can be directly attributed to big man Steven Adams, who is shooting a putrid 32.6% from the stripe.  And not only does Adams struggle at the line, but for a big man, he struggles just to get to the line.  He has only taken 43 foul shots on the year – fifth most on the team.  James Robinson, freshman point guard, has more free throw attempts than Adams.  

Also with Adams, he just needs to be on the court more.  He has played in 56.4% of available minutes this year for Pitt, or fifth most on the team as he seems to pick up an early foul (and often two) every game - forcing him to the bench for large portions of the first half.  Adams has shown his inexperience often this season, but the old adage goes:  you can’t teach seven foot.  Adams is a monster in the low post posing as a mismatch in almost every game.  While his touch around the rim and his knowledge of the game continue to improve, it is simply important for him to be on the court just for defensive purposes.  His ability to block and alter shots his outstanding.  

The verdict?

Pittsburgh is a good team, but they have struggled a bit against better competition throughout the year (not a surprise for any team) and they've yet to break through with a 'marquee' win.  However, this team does not necessarily need to get better; they just need Steven Adams to get better.  He is a game changer with his size and athleticism.  And when watching this team I can definitely say that this is a Sweet 16 caliber team.  So given that, the advanced rankings seem to be in the ballpark of how good this team is.  And I won't be surprised if they grab some attention this Saturday when they host Syracuse.      

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Big East Teams in Feast Week Tournaments

By:  Shane McCarthy

Over the next four days there are a number of college basketball tournaments to take place.  Even though most of the country will be on a long weekend, it is difficult to fit college hoops in between eating, family gatherings, football, shopping, eating, more football and even more eating. 

But if you get a chance to fit some hoops in, there are some real good tournaments going down.  Here are the Big East teams that will be taking part:

Pittsburgh - NIT Season Tip-Off (Wednesday and Friday)
Tonights game is the marquee game:  Pittsburgh vs. #4 Michigan at the Garden.

Louisville - Battle 4 Atlantis (Thursday thru Saturday)
This is an eight team field with four top-25 teams.  The potential for high-caliber match-ups is probable.  A Louisville vs. Duke championship would draw a few eyes.

Cincinnati - Global Sports Classic (Friday and Saturday)
This is a four team tournament taking place in Vegas.  Cincinnati has yet to be tested, but a potential matchup with UNLV (a home game for the Rebels) would give them a feel for where they stand. 

There are plenty of other games spread throughout the weekend (including Marquette and DePaul playing in consolation games tonight), but these are all the tournament games to be played out. 

I'll be back on Monday with the first installment of the Big East power rankings, and will likely send a tweet here and there in the meantime. 

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Big East Preview: #5 Pittsburgh Panthers

Previewing all 15 teams from #15 to #1

By:  Shane McCarthy

Last season was a disaster. Plain and simple. The Panthers only won five conference games, had an eight game losing streak and ended a 10 year run of making the NCAA Tournament.  But that was last year, and this year the Pitt Panthers look poised to return as a Big East contender.

Who’s Back:

Tray Woodall –G– Senior – 31 Min, 11.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 6.1 apg

Lamar Patterson –F– Junior – 28.5 Min, 9.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.6 apg

Talib Zanna –F– Junior – 19.3 Min, 6.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.3 apg

Dante Taylor –F– Senior – 18.8 Min, 5.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.5 apg

J.J. Moore –F– Junior – 18.4 Min, 7.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 0.4 apg

John Johnson –G– Soph – 14.1 Min, 4.2 ppg, 0.6 rpg, 1.2 apg 

Cameron Wright –G– Soph – 11.7 Min, 2.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.7 apg

Incoming Recruits:

Steven Adams – [Center] – 7 foot 0, 240

ESPN’s 6^th rated player and 4^th rated Center

Rivals.com’s 5^th rated player and 3^rd rated Center

James Robinson – [Point Guard] – 6 foot 3, 190

ESPN’s 43^rd ranked player and 4^th rated Point Guard

Rivals.com’s 59^th rated player and 8^th rated Point Guard

Chris Jones – [Shooting Guard] – 6 foot 5, 205

Incoming Transfers:

Trey Zeigler – [Shooting Guard] – 6 foot 5, 203

A transfer from Central Michigan, Trey will immediately be eligible for the Panthers this year.  He averaged 16 ppg, 6.1 rpg and 2.3 apg in his two seasons at Central Michigan.  In the 2010 recruiting class, Zeigler was the 28^th ranked player by Rivals and 33^rd ranked player by ESPN. 

Who’s Out:  Ashton Gibbs, Nasir Robinson

Overview:

Pittsburgh may have had the Preseason Big East Player of the Year on their roster last season (Ashton Gibbs), but it was clear they were going to go as far as Tray Woodall could take them.  Well Tray got hurt during their non-conference portion of their schedule, sat out an extended period of time and never got healthy until the very end of the season.  As a result, the Panthers were relegated to accepting an invitation to the College Basketball Invitation (CBI) – which they won!  Let’s just say, a return to the CBI is not the aspirations of the 2012-13 squad.

Woodall returns for his senior season, and he had offseason surgery to correct the issue he was hampered by last year.  Once again this team will likely go as far as he takes them, but unlike last year, Pitt has quality depth at point guard if needed.  Tray is one of the great distributors of the ball in the nation (he ranked third in the Big East with 6.1 apg), and it is paramount that he is on the floor as much as possible.  But when he’s not, Coach Dixon feels incoming recruit James Robinson can do a fine job of filling his shoes.

Pittsburgh will also be welcoming back upperclassmen Lamar Patterson and Dante Taylor.  Patterson really came on at the end of the season last year, but Taylor, a former McDonald’s All American, has battled through injuries throughout his career.  Both could be primed for enormous break-out seasons, not only based on potential and health, but also do to talented new-comers who will make the team better.

Trey Zeigler is a transfer from Central Michigan who is an excellent two guard.  Even though Gibbs underwhelmed last year, expect Zeigler (a highly touted recruit from 2010) to fill his role as the dynamic scorer on the Panthers.  And the already mentioned Robinson will provide excellent depth in the back court.

But the real prize is Steven Adams.

A true center from New Zealand, Adams immediately makes the Panthers a Big East contender.  There have been mixed reviews on him (mainly that his talents are raw), but one thing has been consistent – he is a defensive force.  The good news is that he will not have to carry this team, as he will be surrounded by talented players and an exceptional coach.  But if he does play at the level that already has pro scouts drooling, the whole country will have to be on watch.

The entire Pitt Panthers team, community and fan base would like to forget about last year.  I don’t think anyone saw that coming.  And after so many years of consistent excellence, such a drop-off didn’t even seem possible.  But the Panthers are retooled with a very talented lineup to make last year’s hangover-like season go away.  If this team runs through Woodall and Adams like it should, surrounded by talent all over the floor, a #5 finish in the Big East seems too low. The conference got a gift last year as playing Pitt meant a walk-over, but the Panthers should get back to their old ways of stomping opponents this year. 

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac