Villanova's Magical Two Game Giant Killer Winning Streak Comes to an End

The Villanova Wildcats were unable to stretch their winning streak to three after coming off their improbable week of knocking off #5 Louisville and #3 Syracuse.  

If you would have asked any college basketball fan back on November 25^th what they thought of Villanova they would have likely been confused as to why you were even mentioning Villanova.  At the time they were coming off losses to Columbia and La Salle.  Villanova was supposed to struggle this year, but not have a hard time with Ivy League schools type of struggles.  So it goes without saying that if you were to tell that same person that this team would beat the #5 and #3 team in the same week in mid-January that they would have assumed that the end of the Mayan calendar and whatever repercussions were to come with that came to fruition.  

I considered writing a blog post earlier in the week discussing how far they have come from that mid-November fiasco, but I wanted to watch one more game -- this time a road game; which also happened to be against a good opponent. 

Notre Dame is no Louisville or Syracuse, but they are a good team and especially good at home.  And while the game did come down to the final moments to be decided, I still came away not knowing how I felt about Nova.   

On one hand I was encouraged.  Villanova led for a large portion of the game, and when they did get down they continued to battle back just as it looked the Irish were going to go on a big run to put it out of reach.  It took a barrage of three pointers from Jerian Grant and Cameron Biedscheid in the second half to grab and maintain a small lead.  Their resolve was good to see.  I was also surprised with how well Mouphtaou Yarou and Daniel Ochefu played in the low post with Jack Cooley and Tom Knight all over them.  That’s what kept the Wildcats in the game because…

I was discouraged with how difficult it was for Villanova to get open shots. Part of this has to do with the play of Ryan Arcidiacono.  He had a rough game.  He took many forced and awkward shots and was nonexistent running the point often.  His play aside, there still wasn’t much happening along and just inside the perimeter from the rest.  JayVaughn Pinkston, James Bell and Darrun Hilliard hit their shots here and there, but nothing came easy for them.  Notre Dame is one of the worst defensive teams in the conference, so this should not have been the case.  

Jay Wright made comments and hints in the preseason that this year’s team was young and was bound to struggle.  Youth and inexperience doesn’t tend to prevail in the Big East, especially when it loses to an Ivy League school in its first few games.  However, Wright made a few comments recently stating that his team is beginning to click and has become much improved.  Clearly that’s easy to say when you beat the likes of Louisville and Syracuse in the same week.  But Villanova does look better – you could see it in the last few minutes of the Syracuse game when they were playing with swagger and confidence.  But there is a lot more improvement to undergo, as Wednesday night’s game showed. 

Their next three games are winnable, and for a team that just crept into the bubble discussion they are ‘must win’ games – vs. Providence, at DePaul and vs. South Florida.  Villanova has improved seemingly every game since November, and they must not become complacent with their recent success.  I still feel that the jury is still out on the Wildcats, but we’ll find out soon enough if their big wins were a fluke or a sign of better days. 

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Taking a Look at Pittsburgh - Polls or Advanced Indexes?

The Pittsburgh Panthers are currently unranked, sitting 9^th in the Big East at 5-4, and are 17-5 overall. However, the advanced metrics and rankings indexes love the Pitt Panthers (6^th on Kenpom.com, 9^th on LRMC, 12^th on Sagarin ratings, and 14^th on ESPN’s BPI).

Are they what their record says they are or are they closer to what the advanced analytics suggest?

They have one good win (blowing out Georgetown on the road), with only one real blemish on their resume (at Rutgers). They did play Michigan tough on a neutral court and their win at Villanova is looking better by the day. Other than those four games their non-conference schedule was weak - to put it lightly, while they have lost tough conference games to Cincinnati, Marquette in OT (while playing the entire game without a concussed Tray Woodall), and at Louisville.

The reason why the advanced rankings admire Pitt is due to a combination of their offensive and defensive efficiency, they do not turn the ball over often and they possess one of the best offensive rebounding rates in the country.

Let’s take a look.

Their efficiency numbers are solid:

Pitt is one of the slowest playing teams in the country (not in terms of speed because they play an up-tempo pace, but in terms of maximizing the shot clock and having lengthy possession) as they average 61.3 possessions per 40 minutes, placing them 339^th in the country. However, they score 1.18 points per possession (4^th best in the country) while only yielding 0.9 points per possession (29^th).  And when you look at Big East only games (which is more appropriate given their cupcake non-conference schedule) they are scoring 1.07PPP while only yielding 0.95PPP on defense - for an efficiency margin of +.12 (tied for the conference lead with Louisville and Syracuse). 

They protect the ball, but take it away from opponents just as well:

The average team in the country turns the ball over on 20.5% of their possession. The Panthers are only turning the ball over on 17.3% of their possession, while taking it away from their opponents on 23.4% of their possession – creating four extra possessions a game. Given that they play slow it is imperative that they take extra care of the ball, but by generating extra possession by forcing turnovers is an added bonus.

The Panthers have a knack for grabbing offensive rebounds:

Pitt shoots a very respectable 48.9% from the field (12^th in the country), which is not surprising given their exceptional points per possession rate.  But when they do miss they are pulling down a whopping 42.5% of all available offensive rebound opportunities.  That rate is second best in the country.  And they only allow their opponents to grab their available offensive rebounds 29.8% of the time.  This differential yields the Panthers another four possessions in their games. 

So to quickly recap:  Pitt not only takes care of and shoots the ball well, but they also generate an extra eight possessions a game over their opponents.  Sounds like a recipe for winning.

The problem?

Simply put:  foul shooting.  While the Panthers do get to the free throw line on an average amount per game, they just don’t make their foul shots when they get there.  They are shooting 66.1% from the line, which is good for 256^th in the country.  And a majority of this issue can be directly attributed to big man Steven Adams, who is shooting a putrid 32.6% from the stripe.  And not only does Adams struggle at the line, but for a big man, he struggles just to get to the line.  He has only taken 43 foul shots on the year – fifth most on the team.  James Robinson, freshman point guard, has more free throw attempts than Adams.  

Also with Adams, he just needs to be on the court more.  He has played in 56.4% of available minutes this year for Pitt, or fifth most on the team as he seems to pick up an early foul (and often two) every game - forcing him to the bench for large portions of the first half.  Adams has shown his inexperience often this season, but the old adage goes:  you can’t teach seven foot.  Adams is a monster in the low post posing as a mismatch in almost every game.  While his touch around the rim and his knowledge of the game continue to improve, it is simply important for him to be on the court just for defensive purposes.  His ability to block and alter shots his outstanding.  

The verdict?

Pittsburgh is a good team, but they have struggled a bit against better competition throughout the year (not a surprise for any team) and they've yet to break through with a 'marquee' win.  However, this team does not necessarily need to get better; they just need Steven Adams to get better.  He is a game changer with his size and athleticism.  And when watching this team I can definitely say that this is a Sweet 16 caliber team.  So given that, the advanced rankings seem to be in the ballpark of how good this team is.  And I won't be surprised if they grab some attention this Saturday when they host Syracuse.      

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Player and Rookie of the Week [week of 1/21-1/27]

Player of the Week:

Darrun Hilliard

Darrun Hilliard had not been the most significant contributor for Villanova to date, but he came up big in an upset win against #3 Syracuse on Saturday afternoon. After the opening tap the game started with Hilliard going on a 7-0 run by his lonesome, and he finished with a game high 25 points along with seven rebounds in the Wildcats’ 75-71 overtime victory over the Orange. Earlier in the week when Nova toppled then #5 Louisville Cardinals, Hilliard chipped in with 11 points to help get the monumental week get off to a court stormin’ start. The fact that Villanova knocked off the #3 and #5 teams in the same week meant that someone on the team was bound to be Player of the Week. And while it takes a team effort to pull off such a feat, it was Hilliard who had the biggest game of his teammates in the two contests.

Rookie of the Week:

JaKarr Sampson

JaKarr is becoming a regular in this segment as this is his second consecutive week and fifth overall (in 11 weeks) being named Rookie of the Week. Sampson is currently the second leading scorer on the Red Storm -- averaging 14.3ppg while also leading the team in rebounding at 6.5rpg. Last week he finished with 21 points and seven rebounds in a 72-60 win at Rutgers and 19 points and five rebounds in a 71-67 win against Seton Hall. The Johnnies are currently riding a four game winning streak and are sitting fourth in the Big East (5-3). While this team’s youth shows at times, they have been playing better as of late and will continue to make noise in the convoluted Big East.

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Soup to Nuts: Vol. 4

The triumphant return of the Big East Power Rankings

I really do not have a good excuse for taking multiple weeks off from publishing Soup to Nuts.  And for that I apologize.  But I promise from here on out, every Friday, you the people will get the updated power rankings for the best conference in the land -- for this last year anyway. 

And we're off...

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

The Dominance and Effectiveness of Jack Cooley

If you are simply a casual fan of college basketball you have probably heard of Jack Cooley and have likely seen him play, and then came to the conclusion that he was a slightly above average big white guy with a high motor and good work ethic.  However, while the more than casual fan would agree with that assessment, they would also be aware that in conjunction with that high motor, being tall and being white, he also has some real talent and effectiveness on the floor.

For starters, he is the only player in the Big East averaging a double-double this season; averaging 14.8 points and 10.6 rebounds per game.  Now the Big East is set to implode, but that’s not until next year, so it still holds the label as one of the best conferences in the country.  And in this conference there are still a lot of really talented players.  So to be the only player to average double digit points and rebounds on a nightly basis is impressive (Cooley has 12 double-doubles in 19 games played).

But his dominance extends beyond the Big East. 

Cooley is the ONLY player in the country pulling down more than 20% of available offensive AND defensive rebounds.  

                Offensive Rebounding Percentage:  21.0% (1^st in the country and Big East)

                Defensive Rebounding Percentage:  23.5% (67^th in the country and 2^nd in the Big East)

And if that wasn’t enough, Cooley also leads the Big East in field goal percentage – making 59.4% of his attempts.

Russ Smith and Michael Carter-Williams may be getting all the looks for Big East Player of the Year today, but if Notre Dame can right the ship (they have currently lost three of their last four) and finish near the top of the standings – Cooley will deserve to be in the discussion.

In terms of usage, he is the Irish’s biggest contributor when on the floor, but he averages less than 30 minutes per game (28.7).  Given his bigger frame and high motor, this is to be expected.  But if Notre Dame is going to make a deep run into March they will need one of the most effective players in the country on the floor as much as possible.  

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

What the Orange Lose while James Southerland is Investigated by the NCAA

Southerland in street clothes awaiting his verdict

As we all know, Syracuse senior, James Southerland, was ruled ineligible prior to their home game versus Villanova this past Saturday. The Orange went on to win that game 72-61 and extend their home winning streak to 34 (the longest current streak in college basketball), but that was after another mediocre first half – which is something of a common theme for the Orange this year.

Coach Boeheim has said that Southerland’s situation is "troubling", but that it is something that "could be resolved." That doesn’t sound very encouraging.

And the most recent rumors regarding the specifics behind his situation are that he got help from a tutor on a term paper or that the tutor actually wrote a term paper for him.  This is apparently what the NCAA is investigating, and given their track record of being anything but prompt with these situations, it could be a while before a ruling is made.

The loss of Southerland from the lineup, for however long this lasts (which could be season ending), is no doubt a negative for the Orange.  

This may not sound logical, but while the Orange are one of the best scoring teams in the nation (79.0 PPG which is 16th best in the country) they aren’t really a great scoring team. They force turnovers on 25.6% of their opponent’s possessions (10th best in the country) which leads to a plethora of easy points in transition. However, as a team they only shoot 45.6% from the floor (74th in the country) and 31.9% from three (238^th in the country).

Southerland, who hasn’t started a game all season but is the first man off the bench usually around the first media timeout mark, averages 26.3 minutes per game (fourth most on the team) and has played 61.8% of all available minutes this season. When in the game he is essentially noted as the team’s most lethal shooter, shooting 49.4% from the field and 37.5% from three, averaging 13.6 points per game, while taking 25.6% of the team’s shots when on the floor.

And standing at 6-foot-8, he is incredibly difficult to guard on the outside for most teams and he is absolutely deadly taking drop passes for Michael Carter-Williams in transition and burying threes.

But standing that tall also makes him an ideal fit in the 2-3 zone as he locks down the wings and corners.

The Orange are now pressed with the task to replace both his offensive production and defensive presence. Since obviously those usage minutes, shots and points won’t just go away, there will have to be a player or two that steps up.

It is clear that the beneficiaries of Southerland’s situation will be Jerami Grant and Trevor Cooney. Grant a freshman and Cooney a red-shirt freshman average 12.2 and 13.6 minutes, and 4.4 and 4.9 points per game respectively.

Ideally, Syracuse would want to mold these two into one player, which was exactly what Southerland was – being a sharpshooter from the outside which is all that Cooney is really supposed to be good at, in conjunction with being tall and instinctive enough to play down low a little bit along with fitting ideally into the zone like Grant does.

When Southerland was on the floor, Syracuse had an average plus/minus of +13.8 per game. That is fifth best on the team and 12^th best in the Big East Conference.

You don’t need me to tell you that the Orange are clearly losing significant production with Southerland out of the lineup. However, Syracuse is a very good team with a deep bench. Unfortunately for the first 15 games Southerland was far and away the best player off the bench which was indicative of why he was essentially getting starter minutes night in and night out. Now they will need one or two guys to step up in his place. This will be good enough on most nights, but I don’t believe a road game at Louisville that looms tomorrow is going to be a welcoming experience for them.

Last year’s loss of Fab Melo right before the NCAA Tournament was essentially a season-ending blow to the team.  They made it to the Elite 8, but that team was much better than that with Fab in the lineup.  The loss of Southerland isn’t on the same level, but it is a blow to the team’s talent level and depth.  Syracuse faithful and college basketball fans alike are just hoping that this issue is resolved at some point this season, but unfortunately for Orange fans - losing a key player in some shape or form on a good team is not uncommon in recent history.  

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac

Where was Cooley Last Night?

We are about 20 hours removed from St. John’s beating #20 Notre Dame in Madison Square Garden, but I am still trying to figure out what happened to Cooley in that game. I am obviously not alone when I ask this questions because when I conducted my search for the reasoning behind his benching (at the end of the game specifically) I was met with similar blogs and articles asking the same question with no real answer.

The only thing that came out of the press conference that I heard was that Coach Brey said that Tom Knight (Cooley’s replacement) gave the Irish added energy on the court.

I watched the entire game last night, and I’d agree that Cooley wasn’t playing up to his regular standards. And I understand that he got into foul trouble in the first half by picking up two quick fouls which relegated him to the bench for the rest of the period. That’s standard protocol around the country when a player get two fouls in the first half. So nothing out of the ordinary there.

Cooley then committed this third foul with 15:26 remaining in the game. Being a big man and essentially the Irish’s best player I could see him being sent back to the bench for a while as he entered danger territory.

But Cooley, a Wooden Award finalist, Big East First Team candidate, the only player in the Big East to average a double-double, and the only player in the entire country to pull down more than 20% of available offensive and defensive rebounds, didn’t play a second in the final 11 minutes.

Foul trouble aside, he wasn’t dominating the game like he can, but he also wasn’t a significant detriment to his team. Yes St. John’s highly energized offense took advantage of him on defense a few times (maybe the fouls were on his mind making him less aggressive?) and he did miss a point blank lay in. And when Tom Knight did come in the game the Irish were able to eliminate a 12 point deficit and take the lead with roughly three minutes remaining. At that point I thought for sure Cooley was coming back in the game as there really wasn’t much to lose at that stage in the game.

But it never happened.

He continued to sit on the bench with an emotionless expression on his face. Maybe Brey was displeased with his energy and effort. Maybe he didn’t care for his undisciplined nature. And maybe because of that he wanted to teach him and the rest of the team a lesson.

If that’s the case it came at the expense of a conference loss in a conference that currently looks to be wide open after the top two spots.

The game was sealed up when shot blocking extraordinaire, Chris Obekpa, blocked a Pat Connaughton challenged layup. But the previous possession saw Tom Knight get blocked at the rim by 6-foot-3 guard D’Angelo Harrison. It’s difficult to imagine that happening to Cooley in that situation.

It’s obviously easy to be critical of the personnel on the court at the end of the game because of the result. But it could be that Coach Brey was trying to send a message to his players. This is only one game in mid-January, so there really is no reason to overreact. However, to look at this in a positive light, this could be the type of message/event that we look back on in two months and say it was a season changer.

Twitter:  @shane_t_mac